The Toronto Blue Jays have won over 90 games in each of the last two seasons and will be looking for a strong second half of the season to hit that again. It is time to continue our MLB odds series with a Toronto Blue Jays win total prediction and pick.

Currently, the Blue Jays sit at 50-41 on the season, seven games back in the American League East. Last year, they entered the All-Star break with an almost identical record. The Blue Jays were in third place in the division, 14.5 games back of the Yankees, and with a record of 50-43. Like this year, every team in the division was at .500 or better. The Blue Jays would go 42-27 down the stretch to finish with 92 wins.

In 2021 it was a 45-42 record for the Blue Jays. They sat in fourth place that season and were eight games back of the Red Sox. Once again they would finish strong in the second half. they went 46-29 in the second half to finish 91 wins. That year it was not enough though, as they missed the playoffs.

Looking to make another playoff run, the Blue Jays will need another strong second half to make it. With the over/under sitting at 88.5 games, they will have to hit the over to make the playoffs this year.

Here are the MLB odds, courtesy of FanDuel. 

MLB Odds: Toronto Blue Jays Win Total Odds

Over 88.5 games: -122

Under 88.5 games: +100

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Why The Blue Jays Will Win 88.5 Games

The Blue Jays will need a few things to make a run and win another 43 games. First, it starts with the offense. The offense is currently tied for 13th in runs scored, tenth in on-base percentage, seventh in batting average, and 12th in slugging. Bo Bichette needs to continue his solid season. Bichette is fifth in the majors in batting average while hitting 15 home runs and driving in 52 runs this year.

First, there is hope he can continue this. In the last calendar year, Bichette is above his career average in all major offensive categories including BAbip and tOPS+. Second, he has historically hit better in the second half of the season. His average is nearly 30 points higher in the second half while seeing his slugging improve by 60 points. The statistic tOPS+ measures a player against his production. His tOPS+ in August and September are both well above the 100 markers, showing he is a second-half player.

While Valdimir Guerrero Jr. has not shown the power he normally does, there is hope that the home run derby can help him turn that around. He has only hit 13 home runs so far this season, and the Jays need him to hit more. Guerrero showed his power in the derby, smashing 91 home runs. He has often surged in home runs in both July and August. He has hit 124 home runs in those two months combined, in just 196 games. This year he has a tOPS+ below 100, meaning he is playing below career norms. If he can get back to normal production, the Jays can make a run at 90 wins.

Finally, there is the pitching. The team ERA is currently ninth in the majors, with a fifth-ranked WHIP, and a tenth-ranked opponent batting average. A lot of that comes from the bullpen, which currently is fifth in ERA, third in saves, and third in WHIP. Still, the starting pitching has been solid. They are tied for third in quality starts. Kevin Gausman has an ERA of 3.03 while Chris Bassitt has won eight games. They have done all of this with Alek Manoah struggling for much of the season. In his only start since returning from the minors, Manoah went six innings and have up just one run. If he can just get back toward career averages, the Blue Jays will have one of the best pitching staffs in the league.

Why The Blue Jays Won't Win 88.5 Games

The downfall would for the Jays would hit in two areas. The first is on offense. Every player on the Blue Jays roster who has played in more than 25 games this year has a positive offensive WAR number right now. Even more, of the primary starting players, all but two have OPS+ numbers over 100 right now, which is league average. The issue here is if those numbers start to regress toward the league average. If they do, the offense will falter down the stretch and then, they will not be able to score enough to win.

Then there is the regression to career norms for some of the pitchers. Kevin Gausman has one of the best fielder-independent pitching numbers of his career. Only last year would be better if the season ended today. Further, he has one of the lowest WHIPs, best ERA+, and highest strikeout rates of his career. He is 32, and most likely, there should be a regression. There is also the concern that Alek Manoah cannot get back to where he was. He was one of the worst starting pitchers in the majors according to most advanced metrics. If he continues that the pitching will struggle.

Then, there is the bullpen. Four of the five primary guys out of the bullpen are having some of the best seasons of their careers. All have very positive ERA+ numbers, and all are putting up some of the fielder-independent pitching numbers of their careers. If they regress and do not continue to improve, the Jays will blow more games late, which will result in losses.

Final Toronto Blue Jays Win Total Prediction

For the Jays, it all comes down to a few players going in the positive direction when it comes to their career norms. Overall, most of the pitching staff and many of the hitters are playing better than they have in their careers. If they can keep that up, with Alek Manoah and Valdimir Guerrero Jr. finding their strides, they will win well over 90 games. The recent history suggests they will get there, and with how they played as of late, there is no reason to doubt that.

Final Toronto Blue Jays Win Total Prediction: Over 88.5 Games (-120)