Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has once again found his power stroke by winning the 2023 Home Run Derby, his first. It felt a very fitting coronation after an unforgettable performance in 2019's showdown, blasting a total of 91 dingers. But with all the All-Star festivities coming to an end, the question now is whether this impressive performance will translate into a massive second half of the season for the Toronto Blue Jays slugger.
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. needs the power
The Blue Jays, who have fallen short of their expectations this season, find themselves seven games back in the AL East race. One of the reasons for their underwhelming performance has been Guerrero's inability to replicate his outstanding 2021 campaign. That season, he posted a slash line of .311/.401/.601 with an OPS of 1.002 while blasting 48 homers. He also earned his first All-Star appearance, a Silver Slugger award, and finished second in the AL MVP voting. However, this season, Guerrero's numbers have dipped slightly, although right on par with last season's. He's currently slashing .274/.344/.443 with a .787 OPS. While these numbers are still solid and respectable for most players, they fall short of what's expected for Guerrero, who unfairly has big shoes to fill from his father, Vladimir Guerrero Sr.
The biggest concern for Guerrero has been his power numbers, particularly his home run production. Despite his Home Run Derby win, the power hitter has only hit 13 homers so far this season, accompanied by 19 doubles and no triples. This lack of power is a bit unusual for a player of his caliber and potential, where balls leaving the ballpark and getting multiple bases should be the norm.
However, there is reason to believe that the Home Run Derby victory could serve as a catalyst for Guerrero's resurgence in the second half of the season.
Where most are now avoiding the Derby, Guerrero could conversely use it as ammunition to improve his season where others believe it could hinder theirs. Similar to Guerrero, some of the most exciting power hitters in the game used to participate in the annual event. But now most of those players are declining the invitation, believing it would disrupt their swings. Guerrero's swing has been part of the problem due to it lacking power at times, causing an issue of concern for him and the Blue Jays this season.
His isolated power (ISO), which helps determine the raw power a player has, is at a mere .169 this season, a whopping 36 points less than last year's total. That would probably explain why he's struggling to hit the ball hard consistently and putting balls in the air instead of into the seats, making his home run to fly ball ratio drop nearly six percent compared to last season. But maybe after launching multiple 440-foot home runs for an evening will give a boost to his power meter.
Learning from others
Other's have used their Home Run Derby performances in the past to perform well in the second half of the season.
Aaron Judge, the 2017 winner, went on to have a great second half, where he ended his season with a total of 52 home runs, the most ever for a rookie. He also won the Rookie of the Year award and placed second in AL MVP voting. There was also the most unlikely of Home Run Derby winners, Cal Ripken Jr., who was the first to win a Derby and MVP in the same season in 1991.
Winning the Derby for the first time, following in the footsteps of his Hall of Fame father, could create a wave of momentum and confidence that can propel his performance and the Blue Jays chances of making the playoffs. Now that he's learned to replicate one of his father's greatest moments, he can now create some of his own, starting in the second half of this season.
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