The Houston Astros continue to disappoint this season, looking like a team that may end their streak of American League Championship appearances and are likely to miss the playoffs altogether. They get another chance to turn it around in this game against the team they beat in last season's American League Division Series, the Minnesota Twins. The Twins are also on the outside looking in for the division, sitting 6.5 games back of the Guardians in the American League Central. The Twins are 2.5 games up in the last wild card spot, but five teams within four games. It is time to continue our MLB odds series with a Twins-Astros prediction, pick, and how-to-watch.
Pablo Lopez has been a problem for the Twins over his last two starts, allowing 13 earned runs. The Twins lost his previous outing 6-2 after Lopez gave up all six of those runs in his four innings. Lopez has a 4-5 record this season with a 5.25 ERA, a downgrade from his 11-8 record and 3.66 ERA last season. Lopez was a star for the Twins 2023 postseason, with a 2-0 record and 0.71 ERA.
The Astros haven't announced their starter yet, but it looks like Ronel Blanco will be heading to the mound. Blanco has been the lone bright spot for the Astros this season, owning a 5-0 record and a 1.99 ERA. He consistently allowed 2-3 earned runs per game after two straight scoreless outings (one a no-hitter in his season debut) but had issues in his May 14th start when he had foreign substances on his hand. Blanco served a ten-game suspension for the transgression.
Here are the MLB Odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
MLB Odds: Twins-Astros Odds
Minnesota Twins: -1.5 (+138)
Moneyline: -118
Houston Astros: +1.5 (-166)
Moneyline: +100
Over: 8 (-120)
Under: 8 (-102)
How to Watch Twins vs. Astros
Time: 8:10 PM ET/5:10 PM PT
TV: MLB Network, SCHN, Bally Sports Network
Stream: fuboTV (Click for free trial)
Why The Twins Will Cover The Spread/Win
The Astros may have the home-field advantage in this game, but they haven't been good at Minute Maid Park. The Astros are 14-15 at home, while the Twins are 15-12 on the road. The Twins have some reason for revenge in this series, as the Astros were the team to eliminate them in the ALDS last season.
Why The Astros Will Cover The Spread/Win
Ronel Blanco was nearly spotless in his return from the suspension for using a foreign substance. He pitched seven innings against the Athletics, with six strikeouts and one earned run, a solo home run. The Astros' best chance at winning games this season is when Blanco is on the mound, as they've won eight of their 24 games in his starts. They also get a good matchup against a struggling Pablo Lopez.
Final Twins-Astros Prediction & Pick
The Astros can lose this series, as they have most of them this season. However, they can take a 1-0 series lead with this matchup in game one. Blanco has won eight of nine starts this season, with the only loss coming when the game went to extra innings against the Nationals. If Blanco gets the run support, the Astros will win this game and have plenty of opportunities to score runs against Pablo Lopez.
Lopez allowed 13 earned runs and four home runs over his last two starts. The Astros have a .331 on-base percentage against righties over their last ten games, averaging five runs/nine.
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Final Twins-Astros Prediction & Pick: Astros +1.5 (-166)
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