The American League Central is turning into quite a fistfight at the top. The Minnesota Twins are leading the pack currently, but the Cleveland Guardians and Chicago White Sox are both within two games of the Twins for the top spot in the AL Central. The issue is that, given the ultra competitive state of the AL wild card race, whichever two teams come short in the Central may end up missing the playoffs entirely.
The Twins are doing their best to ensure that they are not that team, and made a big move at the 2022 MLB trade deadline to help them accomplish that goal. They swung a deal with the Cincinnati Reds that netted them young starter Tyler Mahle in return for a trio of prospects (infielder Spencer Steer, third baseman Christian Encarnacion-Strand, and left handed pitcher Steve Hajjar)
Minnesota's starting rotation has been iffy all season long, but they went a long way in improving it by acquiring Mahle here. With the trade officially in the books, let's take a closer look at the deal and see who came out on top.
Grading the Tyler Mahle trade
Minnesota Twins
The Twins have largely made it through the initial stage of the 2022 season without an ace leading their rotation. They have some solid arms leading the way, but Sonny Gray has the lowest ERA of the group, and while a 3.48 ERA is nothing to laugh at, it's not ace-like stuff either.
That's not to say that Mahle is an ace himself (he has a 4.40 ERA), but he figures to round out a deep Twins rotation that doesn't have a true ace. And maybe that's not a bad thing. In a potential postseason series, Minnesota appears set to be able to run out a solid starting pitcher each time they take the field. Sometimes that's better than having one star and a bunch of scrubs behind him.
Mahle is appealing, not only because he has top-end stuff as a starter, but he's also fairly young at just 27 years old, and is under team control through the 2023 season. So the Twins got themselves a guy who will help them in 2022, and potentially the future as well.
It's also worth noting that the haul of prospects Minnesota gave up here isn't super steep. None of the guys were among the top 100 prospects in the MLB, which could end up making this deal an even bigger steal for the Twins in the future if they end up not panning out in the majors.
Final Grade: A-
Mahle wasn't the best pitcher available, but considering the circumstances surrounding him, he was one of the most enticing options. He will join a Twins team that is much better than the Reds squad he is leaving, and that should help his numbers improve. This also doesn't appear to be a rental for Minnesota, and if Tyler Mahle can establish himself as a consistent part of their rotation for years to come, this could look even better than it already does.
Cincinnati Reds
Just a few seasons after looking like they were going to try to establish themselves as a contender, the Reds are back to the drawing board staring down a rebuild. It wasn't surprising to see them unload Mahle here despite his upside, and it looks like they got some solid prospects in return for him.
Steer is the top prospect going back to Cincy in this deal, and was selected to the Futures Game this season. He has struggled since getting promoted to triple-A this season, though, which could be a cause for concern in the future.
Encarnacion-Strand has some power potential, and recently earned a promotion to double-A after mashing 20 home runs in high-A this season, but has struggled at third base in the field. Hajjar was a 2021 second round pick, but it's still too early to make any judgements about how good he could become given how little he has played so far.
It's not a bad package, but considering how Mahle is still young and under team control past the 2022 season, it leaves much to be desired. The Twins sold high on a couple of guys having good seasons, and the Reds are going to have to hope that they develop, otherwise this will look pretty bad on their end.
Final Grade: C-
It's hard to be overly excited about this deal from the Reds perspective considering what they gave up in Mahle. He's not the greatest pitcher ever, but he probably should have drawn a higher rated prospect to lead the package, or another young prospect to fill out the Reds farm system. The return pales in comparison to what they got for Luis Castillo, and it feels like Cincinnati probably could have gotten more for Tyler Mahle here.
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