Ranked fifth in the nation, Dan Hurley’s UConn Huskies travel across the country to Seattle to take on Mark Few’s tenth-ranked Gonzaga Bulldogs in a rematch of last year’s Elite Eight matchup. Below we will continue our college basketball odds series with a UConn-Gonzaga prediction and pick.

It has been six days since the last top-25 matchup was played. Six days? Felt more like a month. Thankfully, the wait will be worth it and then some come Friday night. Two of the best teams led by two of the best coaches — it does not get any better than this, folks. 

This is what we like to call a semi-home game for Gonzaga. Just over four hours away from Gonzaga, the game will be played at Climate Pledge Arena — most popularly known as the home of the Seattle Kraken. Seating over 18,000 fans, Climate Pledge Arena is over three times the size of Gonzaga’s home court back in Spokane. Will Gonzaga have more fans? Probably. Will it feel like a sold-out High School gym without a UConn fan in sight like a game at Gonzaga’s McCarthey Athletic Center would feel? Probably not. When you would normally give about 3 points on the spread for home-court advantage, I would only give 1 to 1.5 here. 

From a health standpoint, both squads roll into Friday night ready to rock. UConn’s star freshman Stephon Castle missed six games, including the loss to Kansas at Allen Fieldhouse, but has played in the past two. After starting the first two games of the season, Castle averaged 14.5 points, 6.5 rebounds, and 3.5 assists in only 21.5 minutes, quite the start. In the two games since Castle’s return, he has averaged only 5 points, 4 rebounds, and 2.5 assists in 14.5 minutes. I expect Castle to look more and more like his first two games as he gets closer to one hundred percent. 

Preseason All-American Donovan Clingan and veteran sharpshooter Cam Spencer have been banged up for UConn as well. In the Huskies' most recent game against Arkansas Pine Bluff last Saturday, Spencer played 29 minutes and Clingan 22 minutes, promising to say the least. Now with a full week off, I am expecting both to be a full go. 

Gonzaga is at full health too, the injury bug has avoided Spokane for the time being. Expect Mark Few to continue his rotation of multiple quality big men throughout while Creighton transfer Ryan Nembhard and longtime ‘Zag Nolan Hickman maintain their chokehold on the backcourt.

Here are the college basketball odds, courtesy of FanDuel. 

College Basketball Odds: UConn-Gonzaga Odds

UConn Huskies: –4.5 (-108)

Gonzaga Bulldogs: +4.5 (-112)

Over: 151.5 (-110)

Under: 151.5 (-110)

Why UConn Will Cover The Spread

Before I dive into UConn’s analytical footprint, this team has passed the eye test. Without Stephon Castle and with a banged-up Clingan and Spencer, this squad went to Allen Fieldhouse and almost walked out of there victorious. Not many teams in America can do that. Tristan Newton is currently my frontrunner for the Bob Cousy Award, as he is putting up numbers no point guard should be putting up. Newton leads UConn in points (17.2), rebounds (7.2), assists (6.1), and steals (1.5). That is some wild stuff. At 6-5, Newton should be able to get to his spots all night from the significant height advantage over Gonzaga’s Ryan Nemhard (6-0) and Nolan Hickman (6-2). 

Additionally, UConn is shooting a wild 64.2% inside the arc, which is the best in the nation. A lot of this can be attributed to Dan Hurley’s offense, but having Donovan Clingan certainly helps. I bring this up because we have seen Gonzaga’s defense struggle in the paint multiple times this season. The numbers back this up too — no one on Gonzaga has a block rate of 5%. For context, Donovan Clingan's block rate is 10.7%.

I mentioned before how Gonzaga has a thin backcourt, essentially playing Nembhard and Hickman the entire game. While UConn is top ten in offensive efficiency, they rank 234th in offensive possession length. UConn uses a ton of off-ball movement in their halfcourt sets and grinds out possessions — Nembhard and Hickman are going to be absolutely gassed by the end of this game. Now healthy, UConn has everything they need to run clean offense for a full forty minutes. 

Why Gonzaga Will Cover The Spread

I think this team only has one path to victory. That path being shooting the absolute lights out all night long. Let us break down this Gonzaga team and how they can take advantage of UConn. Gonzaga plays a tight rotation, seven, maybe eight guys will play meaningful minutes for Mark Few. The frontcourt is rock solid — led by Wyoming transfer Graham Ike and veteran Anton Watson. Gonzaga brings in three decent forwards off the bench, Braden Huff, Ben Gregg, and Jun Seok Yeo — all 6-8 or taller and can knock down an open perimeter shot. As for the backcourt? You guessed it, just Ryan Nembhard and Nolan Hickman. The real weakness comes out on the wing, where freshman Dusty Stromer is a complete liability on the defensive end. To dumb it down, frontcourt depth for days, not so much in the backcourt.  

Analytically, the only category Gonzaga ranks in the top 25 in is offensive rebound percentage. I do not expect this to be an area that Gonzaga can dominate like they usually do because UConn is just as good, if not better at rebounding (7th in offensive rebounding percentage, 14th in defensive). With Gonzaga's main rebounding advantage neutralized, shots will have to fall. How does UConn’s defense rank? 6th nationally two-pointer defense, yet 325th defending the three ball. Yes, 325th. While Ryan Nembhard has not found his outside stroke yet (20%), Nolan Hickman, Anton Watson, Braden Huff and Ben Gregg are all shooting north of 35% from deep. Gonzaga will get open looks — if they can knock them down when it matters is the question.

Final UConn-Gonzaga Prediction & Pick

Now it is important to note that when the odds released UConn opened at a -3.5 favorite, and within about thirty minutes they jumped to -4.5, interesting. I tend to follow the early money, late line movement I do not care for. This line jumped from -3.5 to -4.5 because there’s a bunch of college basketball psychos out there who found great value in UConn and jumped all over it.

Both teams have quality in the frontcourt, but UConn has a clear edge in perimeter depth. The rebounding numbers seem to form a stalemate and with this game not being played at Gonzaga, give me the more talented team to win and cover.

Final UConn-Gonzaga Prediction & Pick: UConn -4.5