England will play hosts to Italy in the repeat of the EURO 2020 final, with Italy looking to solidify first place in their Nations League group, while England looks for revenge for the defeat in the final. With that said, it’s a good time to check out our Nations League odds series, which includes our England-Italy prediction and pick we have laid out below.
England started this campaign of Nations League games with a terrible result, falling 1-0 to Hungary in the first matchday. They also barely escaped with a point against Germany, and that was due to a controversial penalty scored in the 88th minute. Still, there are four games left and they can still win the group, but they need to start winning games. Italy started in a great way, with four points out of the two games. A 1-1 draw with Germany and a 1-0 win over Hungary got Italy the first place in the group which they can keep regardless of other results if they were to win here. It will be an interesting game between two European powerhouses.
Courtesy of FanDuel, here are the England-Italy Nations League odds:
Nations League Odds: England-Italy Odds
Over: 2.5 (+108)
Under: 2.5 (-152)
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Why England Could Win This Game
While the Nations League is not a huge competition, it still came as a huge shock when England fell to Hungary on the first matchday of this edition of the UEFA Nations League. That result was considered a huge upset, especially considering the strength of the group, where points against Hungary were critical to have a shot at first. The barely taken point versus Germany did not help matters much, so England fans will be looking at this game to get back to winning ways.
Thus, the biggest reason why England could win this game is the necessity to do so. If they were to lose, and if Hungary performs another upset over Germany, it would be one point in three games for the Three Lions. They would be in danger of falling to Nations League B, a huge embarrassment for a country that takes a lot of pride in its national football team. They will likely work harder to win this game, so they can avoid even the possibility of last place.
Last, but certainly not least, England will look to exact revenge on Italy for the defeat in the EURO 2020 final. Despite leading from the 2nd minute on, a Leandro Bonucci equalizer and then a 3-2 win through penalties denied England their first international title since 1966. Now, they have a chance to take revenge on the Italians, even if it is only in the Nations League.
Why Italy Could Win This Game
Italy has had a good start in the UEFA Nations League this year. A routine win over Hungary and a draw versus Germany mean that Italy occupies the first spot and could solidify it with a win in this game. However, that does not negate the awful results they had in recent months. They did not qualify for the World Cup after two draws versus Switzerland and Northern Ireland, and then they lost to North Macedonia in the second round. Couple that with the embarrassing loss to Argentina in the Finalissima trophy, and it has been a couple of tough months for the Italian team.
Thus, it is very important for them to win this game. Their fans are slowly losing patience for poor results and the credit for winning the EURO 2020 is slowly expiring. Starting good in this group is a positive sign, but there would be a full return of confidence in the squad, should they beat England in this match. Italy and England are rivals for a fairly long time and it would be a great result for Italy to win this match.
Additionally, Italy has a chance to win this competition, if they were to win this game. With seven points out of three games, Italy would be in prime position to further hold on to the lead in the group. Winning the group would mean advancing to the final round, where Italy would be two games away from another international trophy. That must be huge motivation for them coming into this game.
Final England-Italy Prediction & Pick
While England is the host, they have not looked good this Nations League campaign. Even the one point they got was somewhat gifted to them, and their opponents, Italy, have been doing great in the competition so far. Thus, while it might seem like a surprise, our final England-Italy prediction is an Italy win at Molineux Stadium in Wolverhampton, England.
Final England-Italy Pick: Italy (+310)