The UFC 286 Main Card is finally here and it opens up with an electric matchup in the Middleweight (185 lb) Division between two ranked giants. No. 4 Marvin Vettori will represent Italy as he takes on Georgia’s No. 9 Roman Dolidze. These two men have been on a crash-course for quite some time now. Check out our UFC odds series for our Vettori-Dolidze prediction and pick.
Marvin Vettori is 18-5-1 in his MMA career and has gone 8-4-1 since joining the UFC. “The Italian Dream” Vettori has won four of his last six contests, but is more recently coming off of two losses to Israel Adesanya and Robert Whittaker. During that stretch, however, he put away Paulo Costa, Kevin Holland, and Jack Hermansson. He’ll look to earn another title shot against a hungry challenger in Dolidze. Vettori stands 6’0″ and has a 74-inch reach.
Roman Dolidze is 12-1 in his career and has gone an impressive 6-1 in the UFC. He suffered a loss to Trevin Giles in his third fight with the promotion, but has since gone on to win four-straight with victories over Kyle Daukaus, Phile Hawes, and Jack Hermansson. In those three fights, Dolidze was able to finish all of his opponents in brutal fashion. He stands 6’2″ with a 76-inch reach.
Here are the UFC Odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
UFC 286 Odds: Marvin Vettori-Roman Dolidze Odds
Marvin Vettori: -290
Roman Dolidze: +225
Over (2.5) rounds: -215
Under (2.5) rounds: +166
How to Watch Marvin Vettori vs. Roman Dolidze
TV: UFC PPV
Stream: ESPN+ UFC PPV
Time: 5:00 p.m. ET/ 2:00 p.m. PT (Main Card)
*Watch sports LIVE with fuboTV (click for a free trial)*
Why Marvin Vettori Will Win
Marvin Vettori is one of the more talented middleweights on the planet and does a great job of counteracting his opponents strengths with his own game plan. Against explosive strikers, Vettori will keep a distance and work his wrestling. He’s a nightmare to deal with when he’s on top and has a relentless ability to ground-and-pound opponents. He’s also good with offensive jiu-jitsu and can find submissions from side control and top position. He has a ton of experience facing the best fighters in the division, so he should be confident facing a rather untested prospect like Dolidze.
To win this fight, Vettori will have to keep his guard high and avoid the massive shots from Dolidze. Vettori is one of the better wrestlers in this class, so he shouldn’t have any trouble outlasting Dolidze with his wrestling. Vettori will also have to be cautious of any submission attempts from Dolidze. He’s never been submitted in his career and won’t look to start against an underdog, so look for Vettori to be the one advancing the grappling exchanges. He’ll have enough discipline in his striking to not give in to Dolidze’s wild style.
Why Roman Dolidze Will Win
During his four fight win streak, Roman Dolidze has been able to provide some of the more violent and gruesome knockouts we’ve seen recently. Training out of Tiger Muay Thai, Dolidze won two of those recent fights as an underdog, two on short notice, and three performance bonuses all mixed in. He’s made a case for 2022 fighter of the year and will be making a huge leap in competition when facing Marvin Vettori. He has a ton of power in his hands and is able to find shots with his long hooks and straights. He likes to bulldoze his opponent if they are hurt and will pour punches up against the cage.
The biggest issue for Dolidze will be his cardio against a much fitter and more tested Marvin Vettori. Vettori pushes an incredible pace and doesn’t wear much during a three round fight. Dolidze will have to be creative off of his back and in standing back up after getting taken down. If he can get creative with his BJJ from guard, he could have a chance to lock up a submission on Vettori with his strong legs.
Final Marvin Vettori-Roman Dolidze Prediction & Pick
While Roman Dolidze is an exciting fighter with the chance to finish the fight at any moment, this step-up in competition may be too much too soon for Dolidze. Marvin Vettori has put up solid performances against the best fighters at middleweight. With Dolidze not sure whether he will continue at middleweight or up a class, I suspect Marvin Vettori will have a rude awakening waiting for him with the wrestling. Let’s take Vettori with the prediction in a display of dominant grappling.
Final Marvin Vettori-Roman Dolidze Prediction & Pick: Marvin Vettori (-290)