UFC 291 takes place Saturday night in Salt Lake City and it's only fair to say it's stacked beyond belief. In the headliner, we have Dustin Poirier and Justin Gaethje competing in a rematch for the BMF title. The co-main event, meanwhile, features the light heavyweight debut of former middleweight champion Alex Pereira as he takes on former 205-pound king Jan Blachowicz. There's further star power in the form of ex-interim lightweight champion Tony Ferguson who will be looking to snap his losing skid when he fights Bobby Green in a lightweight contest.
Those are just three of the fights of what should be an epic event, so with that said, here are five of the biggest questions leading up to UFC 291.
1. How will Justin Gaethje's measured approach fare against Dustin Poirier?
When Poirier and Gaethje collided the first time, the latter was still employing his reckless style of brawling that saw him suffer back-to-back knockout defeats at the time. Coincidentally, it was after the Poirier defeat where Gaethje started employing a more measured approach by being patient and composed yet still delivering what he called “controlled chaos” and continuing to entertain the masses.
The results speak for itself — Gaethje hasn't been knocked out since and he has won six of his last eight fights with his only defeats coming to Khabib Nurmagomedov and Charles Oliveira. How will this approach fare against Poirier and will it drastically change how the fight will look compared to the first? It's a major question that will be answered in less than a week.
2. Would a loss for Dustin Poirier or Justin Gaethje mark their end at lightweight?
Poirier and Gaethje are also in unique positions — they've both lost two of their attempts at becoming the undisputed lightweight champion. They're also both 34 years old and have lots of mileage in the tank as far as fights go. So with that said, would a loss all but seal their lightweight future, perhaps leading to retirement even?
The winner would likely get the next title shot, but the loser — especially Poirier — may find that his future at 155 pounds is over and possibly move up to welterweight. Given his money, he may even call it a day. It might seem extreme, but fellow UFC lightweight Renato Moicano also seems to think the same.
“My hot take on this fight, both athletes are very accomplished,” Moicano said. “They don't have many more fights on their belts anymore. I think the loser of this fight will retire.”
3. Will Jan Blachowicz revert to his Israel Adesanya game plan against Alex Pereira?
Jan Blachowicz welcomes Alex Pereira to the light heavyweight division as a slight betting favorite and one major reason for that is more than likely his win over Israel Adesanya back in March 2021. After keeping his distance and playing it safe for the first three rounds, Blachowicz took Adesanya down the remaining two rounds to defend his light heavyweight title at the time.
If Blachowicz was able to expose Adesanya's ground game, will he do the same against Pereira who is just nine fights into his UFC career? It seems likely, but unlike Adesanya, Pereira carries that one-punch knockout power which makes things a bit more dangerous.
4. Has Alex Pereira's chin recovered from UFC 287?
Speaking of knockout power, Pereira's last outing was a knockout defeat to Adesanya at UFC 287 in April. It was the first time the Brazilian was knocked out cold in his professional career and he's competing just over three months later. So the question is — has his chin recovered in that short amount of time? Or is he coming back too soon?
Fighters usually take a lot more time to recover, especially coming from a brutal knockout defeat. And while Blachowicz is now 40 and hasn't knocked anyone out since Sept. 2020, he's still known for his legendary Polish power. All it takes is one punch.
5. Is Tony Ferguson capable of a win against an unranked lightweight?
It seems surreal to ask this given that Tony Ferguson was on a 12-fight winning streak from 2012 to 2020. However, the reality is he's now on a five-fight losing skid after most recently getting submitted by Nate Diaz in September last year. He now faces Bobby Green in what will be his first fight against an unranked opponent since 2016.
Theoretically, Ferguson should have a much easier time and will likely take less damage compared to his previous opponents. However, he's also a significant betting underdog against a fighter who is also winless in his last three fights. Surely, he's capable of winning this time around? If not, “El Cucuy” will have to seriously consider retirement.