Justin Gaethje earned redemption at UFC 291, became the BMF champion, and also all but guaranteed himself the next lightweight title shot with his second-round knockout win over Dustin Poirier. In the process, he was also called out by Conor McGregor who stated that if Gaethje really wanted to fight him, all he had to do was call for the matchup. Gaethje, however, has no interest in fighting the Irishman going by his post-fight press conference remarks. That said, Justin Gaethje would be better advised to take up Conor McGregor's offer for a number of reasons.
“I want to fight for the world championship,” Gaethje said after his win over Poirier. “These guys are fighting in October. Win, lose or draw, I'll give max effort. I'm willing to roll the dice every day.”
It's no surprise that Gaethje is targeting the lightweight title. He's 34, already lost two of his attempts at becoming lightweight champion and if anything, now would be his final shot at doing just that. However, it would also likely be his final shot at fighting McGregor.
Let's not forget that it's a fight “The Highlight” wanted badly when McGregor was set to make his comeback in 2020. The Irishman, instead, opted to fight Donald Cerrone in what many viewed to be a layup of an opponent. While he beat Cerrone, McGregor has since lost to Poirier twice, breaking his leg in the second encounter in the summer of 2021. He is set to return to action at 35 years of age, but how much does he have left in his athletic prime? One would imagine not a lot, especially with all his inactivity.
As with any McGregor fight, it's also a massive payday when you fight him. It's an even bigger payday if you beat him. Just ask Nate Diaz or Poirier. Diaz didn't compete for nearly three years after his two fights with McGregor. Poirier notably made life-changing money with his two wins over the former two-weight champion as well — enough to the point where people questioned if he was still motivated to fight leading up to the Gaethje contest. Gaethje will undoubtedly make a lot more money fighting McGregor than he would if he ended up facing either Islam Makhachev or Charles Oliveira for the lightweight title. He could potentially set his family up for future generations.
It's also interesting to note that Poirier decided against a lightweight title shot in order to fight McGregor back in 2021. It was a chance to make the aforementioned life-changing money and his eventual win guaranteed him the next title shot regardless. It was a risk that paid off even if “The Diamond” did end up losing to Charles Oliveira in his eventual title fight.
The same would apply here. Gaethje is on a two-fight winning streak, his win over Poirier was impressive and jaw-dropping, and his all-round body of work in the division should assure him of the next title shot even if he does end up fighting McGregor next. If the circumstances call for an immediate rematch with McGregor should Gaethje win, it's a chance to make even more money. But unless he loses, that third and final lightweight title shot will always be there for him.
More than anything, it's an extremely winnable fight for Gaethje. This would have been a crazy thing to say back in 2017, but Gaethje is a much more composed, controlled and disciplined fighter now while McGregor didn't look too impressive in his trilogy fight with Poirier. Add in his inactivity of just four fights since the end of 2016 and overall record of three defeats in his last four, and the signs don't look good for McGregor even though he'd argue otherwise. Gaethje, however, remains one of the most technical and dangerous strikers out there who still seems to be in his prime. One would imagine he'd be a massive betting favorite over McGregor and with good reason.
Now, the elephant in the room is that everyone expected McGregor to fight Michael Chandler. That hasn't looked like it will be the case for a while and that was further evident by McGregor's “f**k Chandler” tweet following UFC 291. A big reason for that is McGregor still being yet to enter the USADA drug testing pool. However, the idea of fighting Chandler also seems to have soured on him.
McGregor has the power and pull not to fight Chandler as expected and if Gaethje calls for it, they could very well be fighting next. Perhaps McGregor finally enters the testing pool and gets a special exemption allowing him to compete sooner rather than later. Best case scenario? Justin Gaethje fights him at the end of the year and a potential win sets him up for the winner of UFC 294 in the first quarter of 2024.
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