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The NBA Finals have delivered in every way, giving basketball fans a classic series that all comes down to one final game. The Indiana Pacers and the Oklahoma City Thunder have battled in one of the closest Finals series in recent memory between two teams that were not supposed to be evenly matched.
The Thunder came into the series as a huge favorite after rolling through the regular season as one of the most dominant teams in NBA history. Oklahoma City won 68 games during the regular season before cruising through two of its three playoff series, only struggling with the Denver Nuggets in a seven-game second round battle.
On the other side, the Pacers have been an underdog throughout the season. After making an improbable run to the Eastern Conference Finals last season, Indiana had a nightmare start to the 2024-25 season before getting it together and making a run to the playoffs.
After a first-round win over the Milwaukee Bucks, the Pacers pulled off a pair of upsets over the Cleveland Cavaliers and the New York Knicks. However, the Thunder seemed to be a taller task.
As it turns out, the Pacers are up to the challenge once again. They have dragged the mighty Thunder into a dogfight, and now they have a chance to make history with a Game 7 win on the road.
However, winning the final game will be the hardest thing that the Pacers have had to do yet. The Thunder still enter Sunday night as big favorites and are coming off of a dominant win in the last home game in Game 5.
In order for the Pacers to win, they must have one thing go right.
Pacers must limit turnovers to beat Thunder
Individual players have had plenty of moments in this series on both sides. Tyrese Haliburton's game-winner in Game 1 will go down in history as a legendary shot, no matter who wins the series. Bennedict Mathurin's Game 3 will stand as one of the best games by a bench player in NBA Finals history. Obi Toppin and TJ McConnell have had moment after moment on the Pacers bench, and Pascal Siakam has been as solid as ever as a go-to scorer for Rick Carlisle and company.
On the Thunder side, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has been the best player on the floor all series, and his clutch heroics in Game 4 will stand as the turning point if his squad wins the series. Alex Caruso has been phenomenal for Mark Daigneault, and Jalen Williams established himself as a star with his 40-point masterpiece in Game 5.
However, no individual player has impacted the series as much as the turnover battle has. The Thunder thrive off of forcing turnovers and getting out in transition, and that allows them to make big runs that are very difficult to come back from.
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Indiana has been a good team at avoiding mistakes on offense throughout the season, but the Thunder can bog down even the best and most organized units. In Indiana's Game 1 win, it turned the ball over 25 times to the Thunder's seven. In Game 3, a win by the Pacers on their home floor, they won the turnover battle by five.
While this has been a big issue throughout the series, it has been especially magnified in the last two games. A dominant Thunder win in Game 5 saw them force 23 Pacers turnovers for 32 Oklahoma City points, while the Thunder gave the ball away just 11 times for nine points.
The Pacers flipped the script in Game 6, turning it over just 11 times to the Thunder's 21 on their way to their most dominant win of these NBA Finals.
Now, Indiana heads into Game 7 looking to replicate that performance, this time on the road against a raucous and hostile Oklahoma City crowd. The Thunder will certainly be amped up or Game 7, and while that may make them jittery and nervous on offense, it will allow them to fly around and cause chaos on defense. The Pacers must weather that storm in order to hang around and keep the pressure on Oklahoma City.
The biggest difference that the turnovers make on the Thunder side is that it keeps them from getting easy offense on the fast break. When Oklahoma City gets to run in transition, it is very effective and can put up points in a hurry. However, when Daigneault's club isn't generating takeaways at a high clip, the offense starts to bog down.
All postseason long, the Thunder have struggled in the half court on offense. This even held true against a Nuggets defense that was shaky at times this season and a Pacers defense that has been up and down at times before hitting another level in these Finals.
If the Pacers can force the Thunder into a half-court game, Carlisle and company will feel like they have an advantage. It seems like Indiana never loses its identity of ball movement and player movement no matter the pace of the game, which will help them generate quality shots throughout a mucky Game 7. On the other side, the Thunder offense tends to bog down and turn into isolation-heavy basketball in that kind of game.
But all of that comes back to turnovers. If the Pacers win the turnover battle, and specifically if they can limit their own live-ball turnovers, they have a great chance to pull off one final titanic upset and crown themselves as NBA Champions.
