We’re here to bring you another prediction and pick for UFC 295 live from Madison Square Garden as we turn our attention towards the Lightweight (155 lb) Division for this next matchup. Poland’s Mateusz Rębecki will take on short notice fighter Roosevelt Roberts in this intriguing fight between opposing styles. Check out our UFC odds series for our Rębecki-Roberts prediction and pick.
Mateusz Rębecki (18-1) has gone 2-0 in his short UFC stint since earning a contract on Dana White’s Contender Series. He notched a unanimous decision against Nick Fiore in his debut and had an impressive knockout of Loik Radzhabov in his last fight. He was slated to fight Nurullo Aliev on this UFC 295 card, but a last minute injury to Aliev caused this fight to get made. Rębecki now comes in as the heaviest favorite on the card. He stands 5’7″ with a 66-inch reach.
Roosevelt Roberts (12-3) has gone 4-3-1 during his tenure with the UFC. His last fight in the UFC came against Ignacio Bahamondes where he lost via wheel kick and ultimately took a break from the promotion. He was most recently featured on the latest season of The Ultimate Fighter and fought as one of the veterans on the show. After a split decision loss to Austin Hubbard on TUF, he’ll get another shot to pave a new path in the UFC. Roberts stands 6’2″ with a 73-inch reach.
Here are the UFC Odds, courtesy of DraftKings.
UFC 295 Odds: Mateusz Rębecki-Roosevelt Roberts Odds
Mateusz Rębecki: -700
Roosevelt Roberts: +500
Over 2.5 rounds: N/A
Under 2.5 rounds: N/A
How to Watch Mateusz Rębecki vs. Roosevelt Roberts
TV: ESPNEWS
Stream: ESPN+, Watch ESPN
Time: 8:00 p.m. ET/ 5:00 p.m. PT (Prelims)
*Watch sports LIVE with fuboTV (click for a free trial)*
Why Mateusz Rębecki Will Win
Mateusz Rębecki comes into this fight having won his last 15 professional MMA fights. He’s on quite the streak and he’ll have a great chance to extend it to 16 as the biggest betting favorite on the 295 card. He was preparing for another fresh prospect and striker in Aliev, so he won’t have to depart too far from his original game plan against Roberts. Still, he’ll be the shorter fighter and will have to work even harder to close the distance on a rangy fighter like Roberts. Rębecki’s biggest advantage in this fight will be his wrestling and top pressure against a weaker guy in Roberts. These two fighters have very different frames and when it comes to the grappling, Rębecki has a huge advantage with his motor and ability to keep opponents down.
To win this fight, Rębecki will have to avoid staying within striking range of Roosevelt Roberts. Roberts has a very long reach, but he often over extends and leaves himself open to shots over the top. Roberts also struggles to get off the ground when forced onto his back, so expect Rębecki to push forward and try to work his takedowns along the fence. Rębecki should be the stronger guy in this matchup so if he works hard and pushes on the ground, should be able to have a noticeable advantage and finish this with a submission.
Why Roosevelt Roberts Will Win
Roosevelt Roberts will be getting his second shot at a UFC career after his disappointing loss during The Ultimate Fighter. It’s been two years since his last official UFC fight and he’ll be determined to leave his mark after stepping in on short notice to take this opportunity. He’ll also be the biggest underdog of the card, but he holds a sizable height and reach advantage over Rębecki. Rębecki was preparing for a fighter close in size to him, so the length and range of Roberts may give him some trouble when trying to gauge distance in this fight. If Roberts can avoid the takedown and use his reach to pop Rębecki with his jab, he could stun him with a few clean shots up the middle.
While Rębecki will have the stronger wrestling in this fight, Roberts is a very sneaky submission artist and has five wins on his record with submissions. He doesn’t have a ton of one-punch knockout power, but he’s very good in turning up his output when his opponent is visibly hurt. If Roberts can back Rębecki up and hit him with clean combinations along this fence, he could have a chance to drop him in this fight. Expect Roberts to stay in range in this one.
Final Mateusz Rębecki-Roosevelt Roberts Prediction & Pick
Roosevelt Roberts should be given a ton of credit for stepping into this fight on short notice in his return to the UFC. He’ll be a massive underdog, but don’t count out his jiu-jitsu and ability to strike the pocket. If Rębecki isn’t careful, Roberts could definitely put some hands on him early.
However, Mateusz Rębecki should have a solid game plan coming into this one and he’s a massive favorite for a reason. No one’s been able to stop him up to this point and he should have success staying on top of Roberts on the ground. For our prediction, let’s go with Mateusz Rębecki to get the job done as the card’s biggest favorite.
Final Mateusz Rębecki-Roosevelt Roberts Prediction & Pick: Mateusz Rębecki (-700)
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