It’s finally time for the Main Card of UFC Austin as we’ll be bringing you a prediction and pick for the opening bout, taking place in the Middleweight (185) Division. Hawaii’s own Punahele Soriano will take on Pennsylvania’s Dustin Stoltzfus with both fighters determined to bounce back after losses. Check out our UFC odds series for our Soriano-Stoltzfus prediction and pick.
Punahele Soriano (9-3) has split his UFC fights at 3-3 since making his debut in 2019. After two impressive knockout wins to start his tenure, Soriano has struggled and gone 1-3 in his last four fights. His last fight was to rising star Roman Kopylov, so Soriano has seen the tighter competition at this point of his career. He stands 5’11” with a 72.5-inch reach.
Dustin Stoltzfus (14-5) has gone 1-4 during his run in the UFC following a contract on Dana White’s Contender Series. His lone win came against Dwight Grant via unanimous decision, but he’s been finished three times already and is seriously needing a win here. He’s looking to get back into the win column against Soriano. Stoltzfus stands 6’0″ with a 75-inch reach.
Here are the UFC Odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
UFC Austin Odds: Punahele Soriano-Dustin Stoltzfus Odds
Punahele Soriano: -310
Dustin Stoltzfus: +230
Over 1.5 rounds: -152
Under 1.5 rounds: +120
How to Watch Punahele Soriano vs. Dustin Stoltzfus
TV: ESPN
Stream: ESPN+
Time: 7:00 p.m. ET/ 4:00 p.m. PT (Main Card)
*Watch sports LIVE with fuboTV (click for a free trial)*
Why Punahele Soriano Will Win
Punahele Soriano has had to face a seriously high level of competition over the last four fights and he fought to decisions against Brendan Allen and Nick Maximov. It could be argued that Soriano edged Maximov on the scorecards and he returns with a great KO-victory over Dalcha Lungiambula. His last fight was against another fierce competitor and talented striker in Roman Kopylov and Soriano suffered the knockout loss. While his record hasn’t been seeing an uptick, he can hang his hat on the experience he’s gained up to this point. A win here would do a ton for his confidence and his best chance will be a quick knockout before Stoltzfus can get going.
Punahele Soriano is a very talented boxer and he’s got great power behind his shots. He also has great head movement and he’s incredibly tough, making him very tough to put away on the feet. His grappling isn’t quite up to par with his striking, but he’s getting better each time out and will probably have to work his takedown defense at some points. Soriano has seemed tired in third rounds before, so it will be crucial to preserve his energy and not over-extend himself during this one.
Why Dustin Stoltzfus Will Win
Dustin Stoltzfus has had an even worse run over the last five fights at 1-4 and it seems as though things usually go south for him around the second round. He’s not the fastest starter and it typically takes him the first round to get an initial feel for his opponent. His striking is underrated and he’s surprisingly good in the clinch when ripping elbows to the head and hooks to the body. His chin has been compromised over his last few fights, so he’ll want to avoid any clean shots from the power of Soriano. Still, Stoltzfus is great at turning a fight into a scrap and he’ll benefit from doing so against his opponent.
While Stoltzfus is a solid boxer and striker, he may be at a disadvantage here and won’t find much success trading in the pocket with Soriano. Instead, Stoltzfus is a deceptively good grappler and his jiu jitsu submissions are very dangerous. Soriano hasn’t been put in many tough spots on the ground lately, so Stoltzfus could see a ton of success in chasing submissions on the ground. It may be his best chance at overcoming another fight as the betting underdog.
Final Punahele Soriano-Dustin Stoltzfus Prediction & Pick
This fight may be closer than the lines indicate, but clearly oddsmakers are backing the striking power and recent success of Punahele Soriano. If he’s efficient with his striking and can close the distance quickly against Stoltzfus, he’ll see a lot of success in standing and striking with his opponent.
Dustin Stoltzfus stands a chance in this fight if he’s able to put Soriano on his back and chase submissions from top control. It wouldn’t surprise me if Stoltzfus was able to lock in a submission as the underdog with his back against the wall, so it may be a prop worth taking a look at with the high odds. Still, we’ll favor Punahele Soriano to get the win in this fight.
Final Punahele Soriano-Dustin Stoltzfus Prediction & Pick: Punahele Soriano (-310); Wins by KO/TKO (+110)
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