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UFC Charlotte: Rozenstruik vs. Almeida continues with its main card action as two fighters in the Welterweight Division look to make their case for a top-15 ranking. No. 15 ranked Daniel “D-Rod” Rodriguez will take on Ireland's Ian “The Future” Machado Garry. Rodriguez looks for a defining win as Machado Garry hopes to finally break into the rankings. Check out our UFC odds series for our Rodriguez-Garry prediction and pick.
Daniel Rodriguez is 17-3 as a professional fighter and has an impressive 7-2 record in the UFC. His most significant wins came against Li Jingliang, Kevin Lee, and Mike Perry. Rodriguez lost his most recent fight to Neil Magny via submission. The pressure boxer will look to open up his skills and put an end to one of the bigger hype-trains in the UFC today. Rodriguez stands 6'1″ and has a 74-inch reach.
Ian Machado Garry is undefeated at 11-0 in his MMA career and has been perfect through his four bouts with the UFC. He was a former Cage Warriors champion and has made a splash in the UFC with his exciting striking. While his competition isn't up-to-par with Rodriguez, Garry has notable wins over Gabe Green and most recently Song Kenan. A win over Rodriguez here would propel Garry into the top-15 welterweight rankings. Garry stands 6'3″ with a 74-inch reach.
Here are the UFC Odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
UFC Charlotte Odds: Daniel Rodriguez-Ian Machado Garry Odds
Daniel Rodriguez: +230
Ian Machado Garry: -310
Over (2.5) rounds: -164
Under (2.5) rounds: +128
How to Watch Daniel Rodriguez vs. Ian Machado Garry
TV: ABC
Stream: UFC Fight Pass, fuboTV
Time: 3:00 p.m. ET/ 12:00 p.m. PT (Main Card)
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Why Daniel Rodriguez Will Win
Daniel Rodriguez has some seriously heavy hands and hurts opponents bad when he lands clean. He has very slick boxing and can find his opponent's chin from tough angles. He does a very good job at covering his head and keeps a safe distance defensively, never over-extending too much. For Rodriguez to be successful in this one, he'll have to be defensively-minded and find the counter shots as they come. Garry will likely be more active in the octagon, so it's up to Rodriguez to find the slight openings and capitalize on them.
While Rodriguez may not be as athletic as his opponent, he'll have the stronger chin coming into this one. Nonetheless, he should continue being sound defensively and wait for Garry to over-extend. If Rodriguez can find a few clean counter shots, he should be able to knock Garry down at least once. From there, Rodriguez should look to gain top pressure if he can find it. He doesn't want to roll with a BJJ black belt like Garry, so he should only welcome the ground if it'll work to his favor.
Why Ian Machado Garry Will Win
Ian Machado Garry continues to refine his striking each time he steps out and looks more like a well-rounded mixed martial artist in each fight. The biggest concern for Garry thus far is his propensity to get hit hard. He's been sat down in a number of his fights, but always seems to dig deep and find improbable ways to win. Against a heavy hitter like Daniel Rodriguez, Garry won't be able to rely on his chin holding up. Instead, he should use he legs kicks and karate-style stance to create separation between him and Rodriguez, to which Garry could excel with his striking.
Garry will be the heavy favorite in this one and rightfully so. He's the more athletic striker and will have an advantage if this fight hits the ground. Rodriguez will welcome Garry to stand and box with him, so it's essential for Garry to stay on the outside and pick his entries carefully. If he's smart defensively, he shouldn't have too much trouble closing the distance against Rodriguez. Garry should look to take this fight to the ground and chase a submission if he can, given the chin Rodriguez has shown.
Final Daniel Rodriguez-Ian Machado Garry Prediction & Pick
Daniel Rodriguez could see some success in this fight if Garry continues to be lazy defensively. His chin has saved him in the past, but it won't be as easy against the heavy hands of Daniel Rodriguez. If Garry gets dropped early, he could be in for a long day. The hope, however, is that Garry will have worked on his defense and will be looking to push his own game plan against Rodriguez. For the prediction, let's go with Ian Machado Garry to pick up the win with an unlikely submission.
Final Daniel Rodriguez-Ian Machado Garry Prediction & Pick: Ian Machado Garry (-310); Win by Submission (+950)
