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The UFC Jacksonville Prelims roll on as we'll be bringing you another prediction and pick for this next fight in the Welterweight (170 lb) Division. Jamaica's own Randy “Rudeboy” Brown takes on Brazil's Wellington Turman. These two should make for an interesting fight! Check out our UFC odds series for our Brown-Turman prediction and pick.
Randy Brown is 16-5 as a mixed martial artist and has gone 10-5 during his long UFC career. Brown rose quickly up the rankings to start his UFC career but ran into a brick wall in Vicente Luque in 2020. Since that fight, Brown reeled off four consecutive wins over formidable opponents. He was once again stopped emphatically by Jack Della Maddalena via submission in his last fight and will hope to bounce back against another tough opponent. Brown stands 6'3″ with a 78-inch reach.
Wellington Turman is 18-6 as a professional fighter and has gone 3-4 since joining the UFC in 2019. He's alternated wins and losses during his time with the promotion and would love to string together a couple of notable wins to improve his stock. After solid wins over Sam Alvey and Misha Cirkunov, Turman lost his last fight via unanimous decision to Andre Petrovski. He'll look to add a win as the sizable underdog against Brown. Turman stands 6'0″ with a 72-inch reach.
Here are the UFC Odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
UFC Jacksonville Odds: Randy Brown-Wellington Turman Odds
Randy Brown: -260
Wellington Turman: +196
Over (2.5) rounds: +106
Under (2.5) rounds: -134
How to Watch Randy Brown vs. Wellington Turman
TV: ESPN, ESPN+
Stream: ESPN APP, UFC Fight Pass, fuboTV
Time: 11:30 a.m. ET/ 8:30 a.m. PT (Prelims)
*Watch sports LIVE with fuboTV (click for a free trial)*
Why Randy Brown Will Win
Randy Brown has a ton of physical gifts that make him a problem in the welterweight division. At 6'3″, he's taller than most of the division and often enjoys a reach advantage, as he will in this bout with Turman. Brown does a great job of creating distance with his long jabs and leg kicks. While he doesn't have the greatest power, Brown is very accurate and lands 4.49 significant strikes per minute with 47% accuracy. If he's able to back Turman up against the cage and let his combinations fly, he could have a shot to get this win by knockout.
Brown's biggest shortcoming thus far has been his inability to contend in grappling situations. While he has a solid 71% takedown defense rate, he's been forced onto his back in his last couple of fights and hasn't looked comfortable when put into those positions. Against Della Maddalena, Brown looked helpless on the ground and will have to improve his jiu jitsu if he wants to have a chance against the black belt Turman. Look for Brown to stuff takedowns aggressively as he tries to keep this one standing.
Why Wellington Turman Will Win
Wellington Turman comes into this fight lacking a consistency in a his performances and will be desperate to get on a winning streak here in this one. He has very heavy hands and will have the power/strength advantage over Brown, but he'll be lacking some speed and will have to close the distance if he wants to land on the much longer Brown. Turman is typically a middleweight and will make the extra cut to fight at 170. His hope is that his strength can play into his favor as he tries to take Brown out on the ground.
To win this fight, Wellington Turman will have to be extremely defensive and not let Brown land cleanly on him. With the extra weight cut, it's tough to tell how his chin will hold up through the fire fight. If he gets into trouble, Turman should look to wrestle and make the most of his BJJ black belt as he'll have a stern advantage over Brown on the ground. His takedown accuracy is just 21%, so look for Turman to improve on those numbers as he tries to find a submission win.
Final Randy Brown-Wellington Turman Prediction & Pick
Randy Brown saw a tremendous run of success in this division and was looking like a ranked prospect up until his fight with Jack Della Maddalena. In that one, Brown looked helpless on the ground and fell victim to a submission quickly. While Turman and Della Maddalena aren't on the same level, Brown still could see himself struggle mightily against the grappling if Turman becomes relentless in chasing the takedown.
If Turman can avoid getting hit and land his takedowns cleanly, he could control this fight with his submission threats and ground-and-pound. For the prediction, let's go with Randy Brown to get on another winning streak in the division. Turman is a big step-down in competition for Brown and if he's able to combat the size of Turman with his length, he should be able to pull out the win.
Final Randy Brown-Wellington Turman Prediction & Pick: Randy Brown (-260); Win by KO/TKO (+185)
