UFC Vegas 31 is a surprisingly stacked considering it's a free card for fight fans. Jeremy Stephens is set to take on Mateusz Gamrot in an important lightweight bout. With that said, it's time to continue our UFC odds series with a Stephens-Gamrot prediction and pick.
Stephens is a true veteran of the sport as he'll be making his 47th professional fight appearance of his career. He's currently on a four-fight losing streak though, so this might be his final chance to prove he can still last in the UFC.
Gamrot is a rising prospect who has only one loss on his record. He made his UFC debut in October 2020, and looks to secure his second win in a row over Jeremy Stephens. This is great fight for Gamrot, as a victory secures his spot on the UFC roster.
Here's how the sportsbooks have set the odds for this Lightweight bout.
UFC Vegas 31 odds: Stephens Gamrot odds
Jeremy Stephens (+195)
Mateusz Gamrot (-230)
Over 2.5 rounds (-285)
Under 2.5 rounds (+225)
How Jeremy Stephens wins the fight
Jeremy Stephens is known to keep the fight standing throughout most of his matchups. 19 of his 28 victories have come via KO/TKO, so Stephens will want to maintain his usual game plan. A loss could mean his career in the UFC comes to an end, so he'll be giving it everything he's got to stay within the organization.
This is a dangerous fight for Stephens, but he'll depend on his striking abilities to stay in this one. He's a wylie veteran who has a ton of experience so he'll use that to his advantage on Saturday night. Even so, Stephens may need an early stoppage to win this fight, as he has looked unimpressive the last three years.
How Mateusz Gamrot wins the fight
This rising prospect has been given the biggest fight of his career and he looks to take advantage of an aging Jeremy Stephens. Gamrot is well-rounded, as he's won fights in multiple different ways. With 18 total victories in his career, Gamrot has secured a KO/TKO win six times, and a submission win four times. He's dangerous no matter where he's at on the mat, which gives him the edge over his opponent.
Gamrot's best bet is to take this fight to the ground. That is Stephens' weakness and Gamrot could potentially secure an easy victory going that route. Look for Gamrot to look for the takedown or the clinch early and often throughout this matchup. If he can do that, this fight should be rather lopsided.
Stephens Gamrot prediction & pick
Stephens is a veteran who is solid when he's on his feet. However, he has a knack for struggling on the ground. Gamrot is extremely well-rounded, but he has a huge advantage if he takes it to the mat. Stephens is in the back-end of his career while Gamrot is just getting started. For that reason, Gamrot should be able to secure a victory on Saturday night.
FINAL PICK: Mateusz Gamrot wins by submission in the second round.
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