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The UFC is back at the Apex for another Fight Night after UFC 289 in Vancouver. We'll be continuing our predictions and picks with this next fight in the Flyweight (125 lb) Division. Oklahoma's Jimmy Flick will take on Mexico's Alessandro Costa. Don't miss a second of this exciting Prelim bout! Check out our UFC odds series for our Flick-Costa prediction and pick.
Jimmy Flick is 16-6 as a professional fighter and has gone 1-1 inside the UFC after earning a contract on Dana White's Contender Series. Flick beat Cody Durden with a triangle choke in his 2020 debut, but lost via TKO to Charles Johnson in his return fight after a two-year layoff. Flick will look to get more active during this run and will hope to open with a victory against a less experienced opponent. Flick stands 5'7″ and has a 68-inch reach.
Alessandro Costa is 12-3 inside of the octagon and is 0-1 in his UFC career. He's still searching for his first official win after also earning a contract on DWCS. While he won his audition fight via split decision, Costa ran into a brick wall on his debut in having to face the ultra-talented and ranked Amir Albazi. He'll hope for better luck against a much more equally-matched opponent in Flick. Coasta stands 5'4″ with a 67-inch reach.
Here are the UFC Odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
UFC Vegas 75 Odds: Jimmy Flick-Alessandro Costa Odds
Jimmy Flick: +200
Alessandro Costa: -265
How to Watch Jimmy Flick vs. Alessandro Costa
TV: ESPN 2, ESPN+
Stream: ESPN App, UFC Fight Pass, fuboTV
Time: 7:00 p.m. ET/ 4:00 p.m. PT (Prelims)
*Watch sports LIVE with fuboTV (click for a free trial)*
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Why Jimmy Flick Will Win
Jimmy Flick comes in as the more experienced fighter in this one and will have the slight edge in striking. He's an efficient striker on the feet and will only throw shots when he sees openings. Flick is an ultimate opportunist as he's dangerous from everywhere and will mold his game to exploit the weaknesses of his opponent. While his boxing isn't the cleanest, he does a ton of damage with his leg kicks and will snap them to all levels of the body. If he's able to control the striking distance and throw leg kicks while staying in motion, he could have a chance to win as the underdog here.
Flick will be the slightly more dangerous guy on the ground with his BJJ black belt, but he'll have to be careful because Costa is a BJJ black belt in his own right. If Flick is smart, he won't resort to using his jiu jitsu when he's forced into a bad spot. Instead, Flick should look to constantly pressure forward and keep Costa guessing with his leg kicks. The clearest path to victory for him is to defend the takedowns of Costa and keep this fight at a safe range. If they start swinging in a phone booth, there's no telling whether Flick's chin will hold up.
Why Alessandro Costa Will Win
Costa comes in as a very raw talent and hasn't been able to shine in his UFC appearances. He was blanking people in Lux Fight League before getting called up to the UFC but it's clear that he's still adjusting to the steep climb in competition. In his debut, it was clear that he was unable to handle a ranked opponent like Amir Albazi. Being the younger and more athletic fight in this one, however, should give Costa a chance to display some of his skills. While he's not the best striker, Costa throws with a ton of power and is eager to constantly pressure his opponent. He'll be much more keen to welcoming Flick into a phone booth type of fight.
Costa should look towards Charles Johnson's TKO victory over Flick and employ the same game plan. Their fight took a real turn once Johnson began to walk Flick down and get him on his back foot. Flick certainly doesn't do well on his heels, so look for Costa to really turn the pressure up if he finds success with his striking. He also has his BJJ black belt and will use his wrestling to set up submission opportunities on the ground. Costa will certainly be the more athletic wrestler and is likely to look for some powerful takedowns.
Final Jimmy Flick-Alessandro Costa Prediction & Pick
Jimmy Flick has flirted with retirement in the past and it's concerning that he's returning to this level after two years away from action. Flick will have to get creative in this one and win with a leg kick or submission off his back. If Costa is able to pressure forward consistently throughout the fight, we could see Flick fold under the pressure. We'll be in for a treat if this fight hits the mats, but the edge should be given to Costa due to his strength and control from the bottom. For the prediction, let's go with Alessandro Costa to get the win as both guys have their backs against the wall in this one.
Final Jimmy Flick-Alessandro Costa Prediction & Pick: Alessandro Costa (-265)
