We’re back with another prediction and pick for UFC Vegas 76 from the Apex in Las Vegas. This next bout takes place in the Women’s Flyweight (125 lb) Division. Fellow Brazilians will square off as Ariane Lipski battles Melissa Gatto in a big spot for both women. Check out our UFC odds series for our Lipski-Gatto prediction and pick.

Ariane Lipski is 15-8 as a professional fighter and has gone 4-5 since joining the UFC. She’s a former undefeated KSW Champion but hasn’t fought with the same type of violence in the UFC. Lipski has gone 3-3 in her last six fights with all of her losses coming by TKO. She is, however, coming off a unanimous decision victory over JJ Aldrich and would like to build upon the recent momentum she’s built. Lipski stands 5’6″ with a 67-inch reach.

Melissa Gatto is 8-1-2 in her fighting career and has gone 2-1 since joining the UFC in 2021. She managed wins in her first two fights against Victoria Leonardo and Sijara Eubanks, but fell short when she faced a tougher competitor in Tracy Cortez. While she’s still fresh in the UFC, she’ll be very motivated to show an improved game against a well-known opponent like Lipski. Gatto stands 5’5″ with a 69-inch reach.

Here are the UFC Odds, courtesy of FanDuel. 

UFC Vegas 76 Odds: Ariane Lipski-Melissa Gatto Odds

Ariane Lipski: +184

Melissa Gatto: -230

Over 2.5 rounds: -126

Under 2.5 rounds: -102

How to Watch Ariane Lipski vs. Melissa Gatto

TV: ESPN

Stream: ESPN+, UFC Fight Pass, fuboTV

Time: 7:00 p.m. ET/ 4:00 p.m. PT (Main Card)

*Watch sports LIVE with fuboTV (click for a free trial)*

Why Ariane Lipski Will Win

Ariane Lipski comes into this fight as a veteran of the UFC at this point, but still hasn’t been able to string together a few wins and find her true identity as a fighter. She has a well-rounded striking game and does a good job of mixing up her attacks to all three levels. In the clinch, Lipski is very good at using her boxing in-close and throwing short elbows to do damage. While her wrestling transitions aren’t the best, Lipski does great work on the ground and can threaten with a number of submissions.

Lipski has had issues in the past with her striking output. If she can’t dial-in the range early, she may struggle to find it later on in the fight. If she’s getting outworked, it’ll be hard for her to come from behind in the striking numbers. Lipski will have to be aggressive from the jump and bring the fight to Gatto. She’s the more experienced fighter of the two and should approach this fight with a patient game plan. Lipski will have the advantage on the ground so don’t be surprised if she welcomes Gatto into her guard. Working to get back to her feet will also be a huge point of emphasis for Lipski.

Why Melissa Gatto Will Win

Melissa Gatto comes in as an extremely hard-nosed prospect that continues to walk forward at all points of the fight. She’s very active with her head movement and has a herky-jerky style of boxing. She rarely throws just one punch and is always stringing together combinations while blitzing her opponent. She uses a ton of feints and mixes in his low leg kicks, but often has trouble landing with a consistent rhythm. To be successful, she’ll have to pick her shots carefully and cover up against Lipski’s counters.

Gatto will win this fight if she is able to keep it at a comfortable striking distance. She’s far more active with her boxing than Lipski, so Gatto will do best when she is opening up from range and finding Lipski’s chin at the end of her punches. In her last fight, she struggled significantly to stop the takedowns against Tracy Cortez. She spent most of the fight on her back and couldn’t do much from the bottom. If she finds herself in a similar spot here, look for Gatto to waste no time in trying to get back to her feet.

Final Ariane Lipski-Melissa Gatto Prediction & Pick

Melissa Gatto comes in as the favorite in this fight due to her active striking and pressure boxing. She’s the fresher prospect, so there’s reason to believe she’ll come into this one with a solid game plan. Lipski has had her troubles in the cage, but she looked very focused in her last fight against JJ Aldrich. With more experience, Lipski could see the same success if she comes into the fight with a similar laser-focus. If it goes to the ground, don’t be surprised if Lipski is the one controlling the action. For the prediction, let’s go with the “Queen of Violence” to get a big win as a live dog.

Final Ariane Lipski-Melissa Gatto Prediction & Pick: Ariane Lipski +184