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UFC Vgeas 79: Rafael Fiziev vs. Mateusz Gamrot continues on the prelims with a fight in the heavyweight division between Mohammad Usman and Jake Collier. Usman has won back-to-back fights which includes winning Season 30 of The Ultimate Fighter as well as his UFC debut meanwhile, Collier is coming off three straight losses with his most recent loss coming back in April 2023. With that said, check out our UFC odds series for our Usman-Collier prediction and pick.
Mohammed Usman (9-2) has honestly looked like a much-improved fighter than we saw during his short stint with the Professional Fighters League. Since that loss, he's gone on to win The Ultimate Fighter Season 30 emphatically with a knockout in the finale and then did one better as he weathered the early storm against dangerous striker Junior Tafa and then drowned him with his pace and wrestling to take his unbeaten record. Now, Usman gets to take on the most experienced fighter in his career this weekend when he fights Jake Collier at UFC Vegas 79.
Jake Collier (13-9) spent most of his career as a middleweight fighter until he gradually went up one weight class to light heavyweight and then another weight class to heavyweight where he currently resides and has a 2-5 record. He is on the heels of three consecutive losses and will be fighting for his UFC career this weekend when he takes on Mohammad Usman this Saturday night.
Here are the UFC Odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
UFC Vegas 79 Odds: Mohammed Usman-Jake Collier Odds
Mohammed Usman: -162
Jake Collier: +126
Over 2.5 Rounds: -124
Under 2.5 Rounds: -102
How to Watch Mohammed Usman vs. Jake Collier
TV: ESPN +
Stream: ESPN+
Time: 4:00 p.m. ET/ 4:00 p.m. PT (Prelims)
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Why Mohammed Usman Will Win
Mohammad Usman surprised a lot of people with his success during his journey on The Ultimate Fighter Season 30. He was able to run through the competition on the show which set him up for the finale against Zac Pauga who won the first round until Usman landed a powerful left hook that had him crashing to the canvas for a second round knockout. Usman did one better and showed his ability to fight through adversity when he took on powerful undefeated kickboxer Junior Tafa and ended his unbeaten streak to continue his winning ways.
Now, Usman gets to take on the most experienced fighter in his short MMA career when he takes on fellow heavyweight contender Jake Collier. Collier is currently riding a three-fight losing streak but he showed some bright spots in each of those three losses. He is also a very durable fighter that is going to give Usman a ton of trouble at range during this fight. Usman will need to do what he does which is swing for the fences to get into the clinch to take Collier down to the mat and control him for large portions of this fight to get the job done.
Why Jake Collier Will Win
Jake Collier is currently in a rut dropping each of his last three fights all of which seemed winnable and this is yet another winnable fight on paper for him. Even though it may be a winnable fight, we've seen Collier falter in fights that essentially give me fights much like the Chris Barnett fight.
Collier is deceptively fast for a heavyweight fighter which is because he fought as low as middleweight during his time with the UFC which will help him a ton in this matchup against Usman. Usman will be looking to land big shots and take him to the mat so Collier will need to do what he does best and that is throw out a ton of volume while using his movement to stay on the outside. If he is able to do that he certainly can get back into the win column and give The Ultimate Fighter winner his first loss of his UFC career.
Final Mohammed Usman-Jake Collier Prediction & Pick
This should be a banger between these two heavyweight fighters. Usman has really progressed a lot fight to fight and he can really put his name on the map if he is able to make it three in a row at the UFC Apex when he takes on Jake Collier this Saturday night. Meanwhile, Collier has the skills to be a longtime staple in the heavyweight division but he has to show up when the UFC gives him fights like this one to get back on track. While Usman is tough, has power, and has a great wrestling background, Collier is the more polished MMA fighter but that isn't always the case when he steps inside the octagon.
It has looked like Collier has slimmed down a lot for this fight which in turn should help his cardio woes a lot in this fight but it also should take a lot out of his strength for his takedown defense which he so drastically will need in this fight against Mohammad Usman. Ultimately, Collier comes out there and utilizes his movement and his speed to keep on the outside until Usman comes crashing forward throwing heavy hooks to get into the clinch and eventually take the fight to the mat and rinse and repeat for the latter portion of 15 minutes to get his hand raised via judge's decision.
Final Mohammed Usman-Jake Collier Prediction & Pick: Mohammad Usman (-162), Over 2.5 Rounds (-124)
