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We're set to bring you another prediction and pick for UFC Vegas 80 as the Prelims continue on ESPN+. This next bout takes place in the Men's Flyweight (125 lb) Division as veteran Nate Maness takes on UFC newcomer Mateus Mendonca. Check out our UFC odds series for our Maness-Mendonca prediction and pick.
Nate Maness (14-3) has gone 3-2 since joining the UFC back in 2020. He's been a pro since 2013 and he'll try to get his footing back after dropping consecutive fights to Umar Nurmagomedov and Tagir Ulanbekov. He does, however, have wins over Tony Gravely and Johnny Munoz Jr. in this division, so he'll be the much more experienced fighter heading into this fight. Maness stands 5'10” with a 72-inch reach.
Mateus Mendonca (10-1) is still searching for his first UFC win after dropping his debut fight to Javid Basharat back in January of 2023. It was an insanely tall task for him in his debut, but it showed his willingness to fight short notice against one of these division's best fighters. He comes in as the significant betting favorite in this one. Mendonca stands 5'6″ with a 71.5-inch reach.
Here are the UFC Odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
UFC Vegas 80 Odds: Nate Maness-Mateus Mendonca Odds
Nate Maness: +200
Mateus Mendonca: -265
Over 2.5 Rounds: +114
Under 2.5 Rounds: -145
How to Watch Nate Maness vs. Mateus Mendonca
TV: ESPN+
Stream: ESPN+, Watch ESPN
Time: 4:00 p.m. ET/ 1:00 p.m. PT (Prelims)
*Watch sports LIVE with fuboTV (click for a free trial)*
Why Nate Maness Will Win
Nate Maness is very aggressive in the way he begins his fights and immediately gets into the face of his opponent. He uses a ton of side-to-side head movement and he'll utilize an overhand right to gauge distance in the opening stages of the bout. He's typically a volume wrestler and has both a takedown accuracy and defense rate of 75%. While wrestling is his best skill, he'll only use it if his opponent shoots first as he's more than comfortable keeping a fight standing.
Nate Maness will have seen the better competition ahead of this fight and he was able to last to a decision against Umar Nurmagomedov. He's a very tough fighter and is more than willing to go all three rounds with a guy like Mendonca. The sloppier this fight becomes, the more it will favor the consistency of Maness. We've seen Mendonca turn into a different fighter after the first round, so Maness could have a serious chance to upset if he can endure the initial onslaught from his opponent.
Why Mateus Mendonca Will Win
Mateus Mendonca stepped in on late notice to face Javid Basharat and actually made it an intriguing fight through the first round. After, however, Mendonca completely lost his momentum as he expended his gas tank too soon. From there, the rest of the fight wasn't close as Basharat dominated with his striking and wrestling. To have a chance in this one, Mendonca will have to work out his cardio issues and avoid any adrenaline dumps against a savvy veteran like Maness. On the feet, Mendonca will be at his most dangerous in the opening round of this fight. From there, we still have yet to see if he can sustain that kind of activity through three more rounds.
On the feet, Mateus Mendonca is certainly the flashier striker and will throw more strikes from his arsenal than the steady Maness. Mendonca also has a very dangerous submission game and has earned three of his wins by submission. Look for him to start fast and try to overwhelm Maness on the feet. From there, Mendonca will have the more explosive jiu jitsu and could look to sink something in. However, he'll have to make sure to bring that same energy to the third round if this fight calls for it.
Final Nate Maness-Mateus Mendonca Prediction & Pick
This is an interesting matchup and it's surprising to see Mateus Mendonca as such a heavy favorite after the clear issues with his cardio during the last fight. Furthermore, it'll be his first time cutting down to 125, so we'll have to see if he can even make weight ahead of this fight. At just 24 years old, the weight cut shouldn't be a massive issue for him.
Conventional wisdom would be to take the more explosive fighter here, but it's hard to back Mendonca in the second and third rounds of fights after seeing him gas in his debut. He may only have the first round to finish Nate Maness, otherwise his opponent will wear on him late into the fight. For our prediction, let's go with the underdog Nate Maness as he proves himself over a fresh opponent. He's faced better competition leading up to this, so let's see if he learned anything from his previous defeats.
Final Nate Maness-Mateus Mendonca Prediction & Pick: Nate Maness (+200)
