UNLV vs Air Force prediction, odds, pick, how to watch

The UNLV Rebels take on the Air Force Falcons. Check out our college basketball odds series for our UNLV Air Force prediction and pick. Find how to watch UNLV Air Force.

It was and is and always will be one of the wildest, most shocking, most improbable results of the college basketball season in the Mountain West Conference. Air Force, a team having a miserable season, didn't merely beat UNLV — the same UNLV team which crushed Creighton by 15 points and swept the New Mexico Lobos — in Las Vegas on January 23. The Falcons humiliated the Rebels by 32 points in a 90-58 win. The difference was shooting. UNLV had five more offensive rebounds, 12-7. Turnovers were even at 8-8. UNLV earned six more free throws, 23-17. UNLV actually took more shots, 57-56. UNLV had more possessions and therefore had more opportunities to score.

The Rebels simply couldn't hit anything while Air Force had a magical shooting night.

UNLV made just 18 of its 57 shots. Air Force, on the other hand, made 31 of its 56 field goal attempts. The big point of separation was the 3-point line. Air Force made 14 of 28 3-pointers while UNLV hit just 5 of its 28 triples. That's how Air Force won by 32. Nearly one full month later, Air Force hasn't won another game. The Falcons are 1-11 in the Mountain West. That's their only conference win of 2024. UNLV is 7-5 in the Mountain West and a team which has a small but still real chance of winning 20 games this season. That Air Force-UNLV result was a puzzler. Now we get to find out if UNLV can bounce back, or if Air Force simply has UNLV's number. The rematch in Colorado Springs is here.

Here are the UNLV-Air Force College Basketball odds, courtesy of FanDuel.

College Basketball Odds: UNLV-Air Force Odds

UNLV Rebels: -5.5 (-115)

Air Force Falcons: +5.5 (-105)

Over: 134.5 (-105)

Under: 134.5 (-115)

How To Watch UNLV vs Air Force

Time: 11:00 pm ET / 8:00 pm PT

TV: Fox Sports 1

Stream: fuboTV (click for a free trial)*

Why UNLV Could Cover the Spread

The Air Force Falcons are just a bad team. What else is there to say about a group which is 1-11 in conference play? The win over UNLV was an aberration. The odds suggest that Air Force will not replicate how it played against UNLV, and that Vegas will not replicate the way it played against Air Force. We won't see Air Force hit 14 of 28 3-pointers or anything close to that. Assuming Air Force makes only seven 3-pointers instead of 14, that's 21 fewer points for the Falcons. It's more likely that instead of scoring 90 as they did in the first meeting, they'll score in the 60s this time. UNLV, a team which has beaten Creighton (the team which just thumped UConn on Tuesday night), is likely to score in the 70s or higher. We should see regression to the mean in this game.

Why Air Force Could Cover the Spread

If we have said it before, we will say it again: UNLV is the hardest team to figure out in college basketball, certainly the Mountain West. How can a team thrash Creighton and sweep New Mexico yet also lose by 32 to Air Force and lose at home to Southern University? UNLV just can't be consistent. The Rebels are lacking confidence right now after blowing a nine-point lead to Nevada on Saturday night in a brutal late collapse. Air Force loves playing UNLV and will be energized for this game, a chance to get a first home-court win in Mountain West play this season. There's a lot to like about AFA's situation.

Final UNLV-Air Force Prediction & Pick

Neither team is trustworthy. Just stay away here and enjoy the game as an interested observer.

Final UNLV-Air Force Prediction & Pick: UNLV -5.5