Ranked 17th nationally, Danny Sprinkle and the Utah State Aggies travel to San Diego to take on Brian Dutcher’s San Diego State Aztecs in this huge Mountain West matchup. Below we will continue our college basketball odds series with a Utah State-San Diego State prediction and pick.

After a Cinderella run to the National Championship last year, Brian Dutcher’s San Diego State Aztecs are back in the KenPom top-25. Led by All-American candidate Jaedon LeDee, the Aztecs still boast that tough, gritty culture instilled by coach Dutch. 

First-year coach Danny Sprinkle has Utah State off to a scorching 19-2 start to the season. Following his coach over from Montana State, 6-8 250lb Great Osobor has been one of the best offensive bigs in the Mountain West. 

Purdue and Grand Canyon at 20-2 currently own the best record in college basketball. Can Utah State join them or will San Diego State remain unbeaten at home?

Here are the college basketball odds, courtesy of FanDuel. 

College Basketball Odds: Utah State-San Diego State Odds

Utah State: +4.5 (-106)

Moneyline: +164

San Diego State: -4.5 (-114)

Moneyline: -200

Over: 147.5 (-110)

Under: 147.5 (-110)

How to Watch Utah State vs. San Diego State

Time: 3:30 pm ET/ 1:30 pm PT

TV: FOX

Stream: fuboTV (Click for free trial)

Why Utah State Will Cover The Spread/Win

Initially, Utah State’s ability to defend the three-point line will play a factor. The Aggies rank 4th nationally in opponent three-point percentage allowing just 28.0%. It just so happens that San Diego State’s worst analytical category both offensively and defensively is their three-point percentage. Shooting just 32% from deep, the Aztecs rank outside the top 250 on the year. With both teams struggling from long range, the more efficient team in the paint will be in a great position to win. 

Secondly, what the San Diego State defense takes away, the Utah State offense does not rely on. The Aztecs' defense takes away the three-point line and forces you into tough twos. While still stout, the departure of Mountain West Defensive Player of the Year, Nathan Mensah, has weakened the Aztecs’ rim protection. Thankfully, Utah State gets 58.1% of their total points from two (23rd most) while ranking top 10 nationally in two-point percentage (also 58.1%). In summary, if the Aggies get shut down from long range it should not impact them too much as they do most of their damage inside. 

For comparison, Utah State and Colorado State shoot nearly identical percentages from two-point range. This past Tuesday, Colorado State beat San Diego State 79-70 shooting 21-31 (67.7%) from two. If Utah State can get anywhere near that level of efficiency, it could be another long night for the Aztecs down low. 

Why San Diego State Will Cover The Spread/Win

Importantly, Utah State’s strength of schedule ranks 86th (116th non-con) while San Diego State’s strength of schedule ranks 11th (10th non-con). Utah State has only played one opponent that ranks inside KenPom’s top 30, an 86-99 loss at New Mexico where they trailed by as much as 20 in the second half. In Utah State’s other two road games in the conference, they beat UNLV (100th) by an absolute miracle. The Aggies trailed 82-68 with 0:10 seconds left (2.8% win probability) and won the game 87-86. The other road game was an overtime win at Boise State where they trailed 72-75 with 0:22 left (10.4% win probability). In summary, this is a Utah State team that should be winless on the road in Mountain West play but instead, they are 2-1. 

Secondly, we have not seen it result in losses yet but Utah State is going to feel the absence of 6-9 senior Max Agbonkpolo in a physical game like this. Agbonkpolo was the fifth starter or sixth man playing 23.6 minutes per game in the non-conference before foot surgery sidelined him. This is just one less body the Aggies will have to throw at Jaedon LeDee who boasts a drawn foul rate of 7.2% which ranks 16th-highest nationally. 

Finally, San Diego State has been near impossible to beat at the Viejas Arena. In the past five seasons, the Aztecs have only lost four times at home. In Mountain West play, San Diego State has won their three home games by margins of victory of 27 vs Fresno State, 11 vs UNLV, 12 vs Nevada, and 16 vs Wyoming. That makes for 4-0 at home all by double digits. 

Final Utah State-San Diego State Prediction & Pick

his is more of a spot play rather than a mismatch play. These teams do a lot of the same stuff. They both take away the three defensively while not shooting many themselves. Where Utah State is slightly better offensively, San Diego State is slightly better defensively. 

Utah State has been able to escape multiple road games victorious where their win percentage was 10% or lower at some point. Vegas is making you pay the price for the home-court advantage and for good reason. Utah State’s road luck is over as they run into a San Diego State team in both a bounce-back and must-win spot. 

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Final Utah State-San Diego State Prediction & Pick: San Diego State -4.5 (-114)