Florida and Vanderbilt are set for a key SEC East showdown in Week 6 at Ben Hill Griffin Stadium in Gainesville. We continue our college football odds series with a Vanderbilt-Florida prediction, pick, and how to watch.

The Gators got off to a slow start and couldn't mount a comeback in a 33-14 loss at Kentucky a week ago. Billy Napier's team will try to get back on track in what is a revenge game for Florida after losing as a 13.5-point favorite against Vanderbilt in 2022.

As for the Commodores, they dropped their fourth straight game in a 38-21 defeat at the hands of Missouri. Can they once again find some winning magic against the Gators?

Here are the college football odds, courtesy of FanDuel. 

College Football Odds: Vanderbilt-Florida Odds

Vanderbilt: +18.5 (-115)

Florida: -18.5 (-105)

Over: 51.5 (-115)

Under: 51.5 (-105)

How to Watch Vanderbilt vs. Florida Week 6

Time: 4:00 p.m. ET/1:00 p.m. PT

TV: SEC Network

Stream: fuboTV (Click for free trial)

Why Vanderbilt Will Cover The Spread

Sure, Vanderbilt has been bad at covering the spread (we'll get to that shortly), but it's not like Florida has been that much better. The Gators have covered the spread just once in five games this season, and that was when they won outright as 4.5-point underdogs against Tennessee. In their two performances since that game, they've won by 15 as a 28-point favorite against Charlotte and lost by 19 as a 1-point underdog at Kentucky. That lack of consistency opens the door for the Commodores to make this interesting.

There's also the fact that Florida is struggling to score. The Gators rank last in the SEC in scoring offense with only 25.0 points per game. That's a welcome sight for a Vanderbilt team that's allowed 36 or more points in four straight games and is giving up 33.3 points per game (115th nationally). If Florida can't exploit the Commodores' biggest weakness, pushing the lead beyond two touchdowns could be a challenge.

Something else to keep in mind is that Clark Lea's squad shut down the Gators' rushing attack in the surprise win last season. Game script was part of the reason, but Florida had just 45 total yards on the ground between the impressive trio of Anthony Richardson, Montrell Johnson Jr., and Trevor Etienne. That may be hard to do again given that Etienne is fifth in the SEC in rushing yards (358), and Johnson continues to play a big role with 56 carries for 253 yards and three touchdowns.

However, Lea has no doubt studied last season's game film to try to push the same buttons on defense in this matchup, as it would go a long way toward giving Vanderbilt an opportunity to make things interesting.

Why Florida Will Cover The Spread

To recap, Florida has covered the spread once this season. That's one time more than Vanderbilt has covered. In fact, the Commodores have not covered in a game since they beat the Gators last November. That makes for a 0-7 record against the spread since that point. While some people (myself included) took a flier on picking Vanderbilt to cover against a Missouri team that has let opponents hang around all season, the streak continued with the Tigers earning a 38-21 win to beat the 14-point spread.

It's not just about the ATS numbers, though. Statistically, Florida is the best defensive team that the Commodores have seen thus far this season. The Gators are allowing just 275.4 yards per game (13th) and 17.4 points per game (25th). Their bread and butter has been shutting down the opposition's passing game, with Florida giving up just 144.0 yards per game (3rd) and 13.0 completions per game (4th).

Vanderbilt has had to throw a lot this season due to playing from behind in most games, and if the Gators continue their impressive run in defending the pass, it's gonna be tough for the Commodores to find points. That's especially true when you consider that the running game has been a non-factor, with the team ranking 121st nationally with 97.3 rushing yards per contest.

Florida is also better overall on offense, and this could be a get-right game scoring-wise against a defense that allows a lot of huge plays.

Final Vanderbilt-Florida Prediction & Pick

It's impossible to trust two teams that are a combined 1-10 against the spread this season. That makes this one of the least confident picks of the week for bettors. While Vanderbilt hasn't covered in forever, Florida hasn't any reason to back them as this big of a favorite since it's only averaging six and a half more points than the projected spread. Either old your nose and pick the Commodores, or stay far away from this game.

Final Vanderbilt-Florida Prediction & Pick: Vanderbilt +18.5 (-115)