It is the A-10 season finale as VCU faces Dayton. It is time to continue our College Basketball odds series with a VCU-Dayton prediction, pick, and how to watch.
VCU enters the game sitting at 19-11 on the year while sitting 11-6 in conference play. Still, they come in as losers of two straight games. First, they lost to cross-town rival Richmond, falling by three on the road. Then, they would host Duquense, and fall by ten at home.
Meanwhile, Dayton is 23-6 on the year, while sitting 13-4 in conference play. That places them third in the A-10 they have won three of their last five. Last time out, they rebounded from a loss. After falling on the road by five to Loyola Chicago, they would beat Saint Louis 100-83. This will be the second time these two face off. In the first match-up, VCU would win 49-47 with a dominating defensive performance.
Here are the college basketball odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
College Basketball Odds: VCU-Dayton Odds
VCU: +8.5 (-115)
Moneyline: +290
Dayton: -8.5 (-105)
Moneyline: -375
Over: 138.5 (-106)
Under: 138.5 (-114)
How to Watch VCU vs. Dayton
Time: 7:00 PM ET/ 4:00 PM PT
TV: ESPN
Stream: fuboTV (Click for free trial)
Why VCU Will Cover The Spread/Win
VCU is ranked 91st in KenPom's adjusted effects rankings this year. They sit 132nd in adjusted offensive efficiency while sitting 56th in adjusted defense efficiency this year. They are 199th in the nation in points per game this year, but sit 111th in the nation in effective field goal percentage. Max Shulga leads the offense this year. He comes into the game with 15.0 points per game this year, while he is shooting 44.2 percent from three. He is also leads the team with 3.6 assists per game this year. Joe Bamilsile comes in second on the team in points with 14.0 points per game this year but has played in just 20 games so far this year. Rounding out the top scores is Zeb Jackson, who comes in with 11.0 points per game, while also having 3.5 assists per game this year.
In the rebounding game, VCU is 130th in the nation in rebounds per game this year. They are also 71st in the nation in defensive rebounding rate this year. Toibu Lawal is leading the way here. He comes in with 5.9 rebounds per game, while also adding 7.9 points per game. Meanwhile, Max Shulga and Sean Bairstow both have 4.9 rebounds per game.
On defense, VCU ranks 40th in the nation in opponent points per game this year, while sitting 17th in opponent effective field goal percentage. Further, they are tenth in the nation in opponent assists per game this year. Jason Nelson and Zeb Jackson have been a major part of this. Jackson comes in with 1.4 steals per game, while Nelson has 1.1 steals per game. Further, Toibu Lawal comes in with a block per game this year.
Why Dayton Will Cover The Spread/Win
Dayton comes in sitting 26th in the nation in KenPom's adjusted efficiency ratings this year. They have been solid on offense this year, sitting 18th in adjusted offensive efficiency, while sitting 68th in adjusted defensive efficiency. While Dayton sits 120th in points per game, they are some of the best in the nation at shooting and moving the ball. Dayton is seventh in the nation in effective field goal percentage, while sitting fourth in the nation in three-point percentage. Dayton is also 36th in the nation in assists to turnover ratio.
The leader of this offense is DaRon Holmes II. He comes into the game shooting 55.3 percent this year with 20.1 points per game. The forward is primarily an inside scorer, while also playing well on the inside in general. Holmes has 8.2 rebounds per game this year. Second on the team in points is Nate Santos. Santos is also shooting well from three this year. He comes in with 11.8 points per game while shooting 41.3 percent from three this year. Santos also adds 6.4 rebounds per game this year. Further, Koby Brea is playing well. He comes in with 10.8 points per game this year while leading the team with 85 three-pointers made this year. He is shooting 49.4 percent from three this year.
Dayton also gets help from Kobe Elvis and Javon Bennett. Elvis comes in with just 9.4 points per game but has 3.6 assists per game this year. Bennett comes in with 8.9 points per game, but he has 3.5 assists per game this year, which is second on the team.
Dayton is also solid on defense this year, coming in 19th in the nation in points allowed per game. At the same time, they do sit 22th in rebounds per game. They allow just a 47.5 percent effective field goal percentage, which is 46th in the nation. DaRon Holmes is also a huge part of the defense, coming in with 2.2 blocks per game this year. Javon Bennett also adds 1.3 steals per game this year.
Final VCU-Dayton Prediction & Pick
VCU dominated the first performance on defense but still came out with a very close win. VCU has also covered the spread in six of their last nine games overall. Dayton has covered in just five of their last ten games overall, with one of the misses being the loss to VCU when they were favored by two. Still, Dayton is at home, where they shoot better. Take the Flyers in this one.
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Final VCU-Dayton Prediction & Pick: Dayton -8.5 (-105)
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