The Golden State Warriors remain fully committed to Jonathan Kuminga. Though focus centered on the their refusal to include Brandin Podziemski in prospective win-now trade proposals for both Paul George and Lauri Markkanen, the Dubs also elected against making Kuminga available, further evidence there's steadfast belief in his ability to become the organization's next star.
But don't confuse that hopeful optimism with Golden State's willingness to meet the 21-year-old's any demand in extension negotiations. On the contrary, the Warriors are already telegraphing they have no interest in paying Kuminga the max deal he's set to seek on his next contract.
“If Kuminga were to receive a max rookie scale extension, a deal his camp will be asking for, the Warriors would once again tie themselves down cap-wise,” ClutchPoints' Brett Siegel reported on Monday. “In the midst of August, it doesn't appear as if this is the contract the Dubs are focused on.”
Golden State has no obligation to re-up Kuminga before 2024-25. The front office can let the October 21st deadline for rookie extensions pass without too much worry, knowing the Warriors retain matching rights on any contract he'd sign in restricted free agency next summer. The ball is very much in the court of Joe Lacob and Mike Dunleavy Jr. here, basically.
These are the angles Golden State will be considering when it comes to Kuminga's next contract.
What is Jonathan Kuminga's market value on extension?
Go ahead and forget about the prospect of Kuminga getting a rookie max extension from the Dubs before 2024-25.
Scottie Barnes and Franz Wagner just put pen to paper on that five-year, $224 million framework, and they've shown much more with the Toronto Raptors and Orlando Magic than Kuminga has in Golden State so far. Even the most biased Warriors fan must admit Barnes and Wagner have better chances of scraping their ceilings, too.
Two far more realistic extension comparisons for Kuminga emerged last year.
He's certainly not the all-world defender of Jaden McDaniels, but is at least cut from a similar two-way cloth of athleticism, play finishing and versatile defense as the Minnesota Timberwolves forward. Though Devin Vassell is a much better shooter than Kuminga and occupies different spaces on the floor, he's still the type of dynamic tertiary offensive option and workable defender for the San Antonio Spurs who Kuminga could eventually become with the Dubs.
McDaniels signed a five-year, $131 million extension last fall that accounts for 16.4% of this season's salary cap. A couple weeks earlier, Vassell inked a five-year, $135 million contract that makes up 20.9% of the 2024-25 cap but decreases going forward.
Based on a projected $151.1 million salary cap for 2025-26, earning 20% of that number in the first year of an extension would start Kuminga at a salary of $30.2 million. Assuming standard eight percent raises from there, a new five-year extension for Kuminga comes in at roughly $175 million—parameters that seem to align with his expected desires.
“It is unexpected that Kuminga and his camp will agree to anything less than $30 million per year entering the 2024-25 season, given his growth and role with Golden State,” Siegel reported. “After all, he was the team's third-leading scorer last season, behind Curry and Thompson. The $224 million extensions both Scottie Barnes and Franz Wagner got this offseason will certainly come up in contract discussions Kuminga has with the Warriors before the season.”
Why waiting makes sense for both sides
Locking down Kuminga for roughly 20% of the cap would be prudent business for the Dubs in a vacuum. There's still the outside possibility he takes major strides as a shooter, playmaker and overall processor going forward, developing into the star, on-ball wing every team in basketball dreams of building around. Broad stasis for Kuminga from here wouldn't be a disaster on that contract, either. His youth, positional value and rare physical tools ensure he'd remain an asset on the trade market for at least the next few seasons.
The most optimal path for both team and player, though, might be kicking the can down the road until next July.
Golden State has $138.2 million in salary committed to seven players for 2025-26, not including Kuminga's cap hold. Shedding just over $18 million owed to Kyle Anderson and Buddy Hield would afford the Warriors some $30 million in cap space to work with on the open market, then allow them go back and sign Kuminga with Bird Rights—the same process the Philadelphia 76ers used to bring in George before Tyrese Maxey got his max deal.
The upside for Kuminga in that scenario? Maybe the meteoric rise it looked like he was on for stretches of last season extends across the duration of 2024-25, turning him into the full-fledged star wing the Dubs would be thrilled to pay a five-year max.
Either way, don't be surprised when October 21st comes and goes without an agreement in place. It's no secret Kuminga and the Warriors haven't always seen eye-to-eye on his role and value, and the incentive for both sides to wait for more information before a new contract is put in place seems too obvious for them to ignore.
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