The best eight-game stretch of the Golden State Warriors' season still hasn't guaranteed them a playoff spot. As the last weekend of 2022-23 dawns, the defending champions' postseason seed remains subject to change, not even a much-needed 6-2 push over the last two weeks cementing their status in the tightly packed Western Conference standings.
Golden State will enter Friday's penultimate game of the regular season against the Sacramento Kings at 42-38, good for sixth in the West.
If they win in California's capital city—more likely considering Sacramento, two games down on the Memphis Grizzlies and likely bound for the three seed, could rest star players—and beat the tanking Portland Trail Blazers in the finale, the Warriors are assured of finishing fifth or sixth. Just splitting their last two games risks the Dubs falling to eighth, though, set to begin their postseason title defense not only by punching through the play-in tournament, but beginning it on the road.
Let's dive into Golden State's various postseason seeding scenarios before the pivotal final weekend of 2022-23 tips off.
Warriors get five seed, meet Phoenix Suns in first round
Probability (per PlayoffStatus.com): 17%
Possible paths
- Finish 2-0, Clippers lose to Portland or Phoenix
- Finish 1-1, Clippers lose out, Lakers lose to Suns or Utah Jazz, Pelicans lose to New York Knicks or Minnesota Timberwolves
The better seed isn't always optimal.
With Kevin Durant, Devin Booker and the Suns having already clinched the four seed, the Dubs would be subject to an epic first-round clash with major championship implications if they finish fifth. Awaiting Steph Curry and company in the second round if they're left standing after that battle of the last two Western Conference champs? Just Nikola Jokic and the Denver Nuggets at altitude, where they've been dominant all season long.
There's too much downside for Golden State to try and manipulate the standings by sitting stars against Portland if they beat the Kings on Friday. Make no mistake, though: The Warriors don't want the five seed.
Warriors stay at No. 6
Probability: 33%
Possible paths
- Finish 2-0, Clippers win out
- Finish 1-1, Clippers win at least once, Lakers finish 1-1 or 0-2, Pelicans finish 1-1 or 0-2
The Dubs' ideal postseason scenario happens to be their most likely.
The Kings will clinch the three seed with a loss to Golden State or the Nuggets—sure to rest Jokic, Jamal Murray and other regulars in the finale—or if the Memphis beats the Milwaukee Bucks or Oklahoma City Thunder. Entertaining and dynamic as Mike Brown's team has been this season, Sacramento would still be underdogs in a first-round matchup with the Warriors played up and down I-80. Golden State obviously wouldn't be scared of meeting the rival Grizzlies in the second round, either.
Warriors finish seventh, host play-in game
Probability: 23%
Possible paths
- Finish 1-1, Clippers win at least once, one of Lakers/Pelicans goes 2-0 and other 1-1 or worse
- Finish 0-2, Clippers win at least once, one of Lakers/Pelicans goes 1-1 or better and loses out
The Clippers own the tiebreaker over Golden State due to division record. The Warriors blew out the Lakers on ring night back in mid-October, but lost the teams' next three games, giving the purple-and-gold the tiebreaker. New Orleans has the tiebreaker over the Dubs due to conference record versus playoff-bound teams.
No one doubts that Golden State could advance from the play-in tournament. The reigning champs have been awesome at Chase Center all season; it'd be stunning if they lost back-to-back home games, facing elimination in the second one, with the season hanging in the balance.
But just as shocking would be if the aging, inconsistent Warriors emerged from the play-in gauntlet at their best, without the additional week of rest afforded by a top-six seed—extra crucial as Andrew Wiggins continues re-acclimating before making his long-awaited return for the postseason.
Warriors drop to eighth, go on road for play-in opener
Probability: 26%
Possible paths
- Finish 1-1, Clippers win at least once, Lakers win out, Pelicans win out
- Finish 0-2, Clippers win at least once, Lakers goes 1-1 or better, Pelicans go 1-1 or better
All the Dubs need to avoid this worst-case scenario is one more win in their last two games and just a single loss from the Lakers or Pelicans. But there's still a real chance disaster strikes, forcing them to go on the road for the play-in opener against the three teams they're in most direct competition with for seeding or even the Minnesota Timberwolves.
You don't need to be reminded just how awful the Warriors have been outside San Francisco this season. The only silver lining here? At least Golden State would be back at home if its road woes persist, hosting a do-or-die game at Chase Center versus the Pelicans, Wolves, Oklahoma City Thunder or Dallas Mavericks—depths that could spark renewed calls for the Dubs to break up their dynastic core.
Gulp.
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