In Sunday night's game, the Houston Rockets fell apart after an impressive first half against the Western Conference's top seed Minnesota Timberwolves. This loss epitomizes most of Houston's start to 2024, which has been marked by inconsistency. The Rockets now hold a road record of 5-17, one of the worst in the league.
To make matters worse, Fred VanVleet has been listed as out with an adductor strain prior to Tuesday's game against the Indiana Pacers, via Ben DuBose of USA Today. VanVleet has an unknown return timeline and could be sidelined for the foreseeable future due to his injury.
Playing too many minutes
The 29-year-old point guard is currently sixth in average minutes per game at 37.8 and was in the top three for the first two months of the season. Earning $40.78 million this season after signing a max deal in the summer, the Rockets are desperately using every bit of his contract to keep him on the floor. Unfortunately, the excessive overuse of his minutes, compared to the rest of the team and considering his age, was bound to backfire.
Due to Amen Thompson's injury which kept him out for over a month, the Rockets struggled to play well offensively without VanVleet's presence. Early in the season, when he was off the floor, the Rockets seemed lost on both offense and defense. There was hardly any communication from the team unless VanVleet was on the court.
The only significant breaks he got on the bench were in between quarters or during brief pauses for free throws. This is why he averaged 37.8 and 38.1 minutes in November and December.
VanVleet's contributions
Throughout 47 games, VanVleet averages 16.5 points with 8.2 assists on 40.9% shooting and 37.4% from beyond the arc. He's been the undisputed facilitator in the starting lineup, especially alongside his frontcourt teammate Alperen Sengun.
The Rockets have an offensive rating of 117.07 in the 1381 minutes both Sengun and VanVleet share the floor. With just Sengun on and VanVleet off, that number drops to 109.19.
VanVleet's presence on the floor resulted in the Rockets outscoring their opponents by 9.1 points per 100 possessions this season. However, this also leaves Houston with an overall pace of 99.15, which is 17th in the league.
As a player, VanVleet himself ranks 453rd out of 500 qualified players in individual pace. The second-highest minutes in rotation without him perform at a 104.44 pace. This includes minutes from Thompson, Cam Whitmore, Aaron Holiday, and Jabari Smith Jr.
A big blow to the starting five
It's no secret the Rockets will be missing a key piece of their starting five for an indefinite period. Taking VanVleet off the floor will drastically change how the Rockets play. Sengun will likely get more scoring opportunities in isolation posts, but more opportunities could go to the dynamic play of Cam Whitmore and Amen Thompson.
Thompson himself, will likely see extended minutes. When the rookie played against the Celtics on January 21st for 32 minutes, he secured a stat line of fifteen points and fourteen rebounds.
The upcoming trade deadline on Thursday just got a whole lot more significant for Houston. With their play-in chances dwindling, trading for a quality guard is more important following this injury.
For a silver lining, especially with Thompson likely taking the reigns, expect the team to play younger and faster as they head into the All-Star break.
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