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The Kansas City Chiefs and the Philadelphia Eagles will meet once again in the Super Bowl, in a clash of dominant teams with the Vince Lombardi Trophy on the line. The Chiefs made it this far largely thanks to the dominance of Patrick Mahomes and the emergence of rookie wide receiver Xavier Worthy helping to offset the subtle decline of Travis Kelce, as well as a strong running game and overall depth.
Meanwhile, the Eagles reloaded by adding former New York Giants star Saquon Barkley during free agency, and Barkley has reenergized a team that prides itself on physicality. The Chiefs have won two consecutive Super Bowl titles, and this year’s result shouldn’t be any different.
Let’s take a closer look at this matchup and why the Chiefs are rightly favored on the betting markets.
Patrick Mahomes is the best player in the world
Patrick Mahomes is without a doubt the best quarterback in the league, and it isn’t particularly close. He’s head and shoulders above the competition when it comes to counterparts. Hurts has a slight edge as a quarterback in the running game, but Mahomes is on an entirely another level.
Mahomes isn’t just the best quarterback. He’s the best player in the league. As long as he’s under center for the Chiefs, Andy Reid’s squad will always have a chance.
Mahomes has a Steph Curry-like impact on the defense, with his other-worldly accuracy, downfield range, and his ability to contort his arm allowing him to to put the ball anywhere on the field. His ability to throw accurate passes down the field from unorthodox arm angles combined with his creativity and ability to go off script forces defenders to cover the entire field and maintain defensive integrity coverage for three, five, seven, and sometimes even 10 seconds on any given play.
Most defenders are taught that if they can lock down their assignment for four seconds, they have done their job. Players often also follow the quarterback. This means that if the quarterback rolls out to one side of the field, the coverage shifts to that half of the field, essentially eliminating an entire half and giving the quarterback less room to operate. Mahomes changes the formula because he can throw the ball anywhere regardless of where he is.
This makes him a unique weapon and allows him to put immense pressure on opposing defenses. As long as he’s taking snaps the Chiefs will have a strong chance to win the Super Bowl.
The Eagles no longer have Jason Kelce
Jason Kelce was critical to the Eagles’ game plan in recent seasons. One thing that made the Eagles so difficult to beat was that they had the ability to convert on fourth and short due to their patented “tush push” quarterback sneak play. This critical option gave Nick Sirianni’s squad the ability to extend drives and keep the chains moving, chewing up the clock and putting points on the board.
Hurts is certainly important to that style of play because of his lower body strength, but Jason Kelce’s aggressiveness and physical blocking were also vital to the team’s astounding success running the quarterback sneak.
Kansas City can win in a shootout
The Eagles’ best strategy for winning this game might be to open up the downfield passing game and air the ball out to A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith. Unfortunately, a shootout between two high-octane passing offenses plays right into Kansas City‘s hands, and the Chiefs are difficult to beat when playing that style.
Jalen Hurts is an excellent quarterback, and he has evolved as a passer since coming to the NFL. With that being said, though, Pat Mahomes is on a different planet compared to just about anybody in the league in terms of being a pure passer.
The Chiefs will be more than happy to oblige if the Eagles look to turn this game into a track meet. Philadelphia’s best bet will be to slow the game down and turn it into a knockdown dragged-out slugfest in the trenches.
The best approach to beating the Chiefs is to lead slow, methodical sustained drives, then chew up the clock through a steady dose of Run and keep Mahomes, Kelce, and company glued to the bench where they cannot do any harm. The best defense is a good offense, and Mahomes and company can’t make an impact on the game if they aren’t on the field.
As a general rule of thumb, the fewer drives that you allow the Chiefs offense to have, the better. Even if the Chiefs score consistently and efficiently, reducing the overall impact they can have on the game by winning the time-of-possession battle is critical to beating the back-to-back champions.
The Eagles do have an elite running game led by former New York Giants superstar running back Saquon Barkley, which in theory should bode well for their chances to win. The problem there is that Barkley is a home run threat who can take one to the house anytime he touches the rock. While that’s generally a great thing for the Eagles, scoring quickly can negatively impact the battle for the clock and give Mahomes more chances to leave his fingerprints on the game.
The Chiefs are chasing history
The Chiefs are looking to do something that no team has ever done in modern NFL history by winning three consecutive Super Bowl titles. In some cases, the cumulative fatigue of playing deep into the postseason several years in a row, as well as the hangover from being defending champions could negatively impact a team's momentum.
With literal history on the line, though, it’s unlikely that the Chiefs will suffer from these issues. They have one more game and if they can push through and come away with a victory, the Chiefs will have an argument as the greatest dynasty in football, and their players and coaches will be written into NFL history forever.
Andy Reid will have his team primed and ready to go.
