Sometimes it seems like NFL head coaches don’t follow a logical path, like when a mediocre veteran gets the nod over a flashy rookie — even when the rookie looks good when the lights go on. But after his electric preseason debut, the Minnesota Vikings must start JJ McCarthy over Sam Darnold.
The Vikings grabbed McCarthy in the first round at No. 10 overall. The best number for McCarthy came in the form of a 27-1 career record. He had the highest winning percentage (.964) in NCAA Division I FBS history. Clearly the kid’s a winner. Minnesota traded up — albeit one spot — to assure quarterback-needy Denver didn’t leapfrog from draft position No. 12.
In his preseason debut Saturday, McCarthy overcame an interception on his first possession before leading the Vikings to three scoring drives. Two of those finished with touchdown passes of 45 and 33 yards. He ended 11 for 17 for 188 yards. Also, he added two carries for 18 yards.
Why wouldn’t O’Connell go with JJ McCarthy at QB?
Let’s be fair and point to a few ways we can understand Vikings head coach Kevin O’Connell’s mindset of waiting. First, the ever-present Patrick Mahomes strategy. The Chiefs didn’t start Mahomes during his rookie year. Seven years later, Mahomes is one of the best quarterbacks of all time with three Super Bowl rings at age 28.
But let’s debunk that nonsense quickly. McCarthy isn’t Patrick Mahomes. In fact, it’s possible no quarterback from now until the next century will ever be Mahomes.
Whatever the Chiefs did with Mahomes worked, but there also a chance — nobody will ever know — the Chiefs wasted a year of his career. Instead of going 10-6 in 2017 and squeaking into the playoffs where they lost their first game, maybe the Chiefs could have won the Super Bowl that season and Mahomes would have four titles? Not buying it? Just one year later, Mahomes — essentially in his rookie season — had the Chiefs six points away from the Super Bowl, losing in overtime when he didn’t get a possession.
What do Vikings have in J.J. McCarthy?
McCarthy showed flashes Saturday. His natural sense of pressure and ability to make plays outside of the pocket are exactly what an NFL quarterback needs. O’Connell said McCarthy displayed a strong arm and high upside overall, per Vikings beat writer Will Ragatz.
“Clearly, everybody can see the arm talent,” O'Connell said. “I loved seeing him come right back after the interception and still be aggressive.”
McCarthy had a few rookie moments but settled into an impressive performance. However, this isn’t the regular season and defenses play tougher when the games count.
O’Connell said the progress may look greater than it actually was, according to espn.com.
“(It’s) just another glorified, singular step in the process,” O’Connell said. “I think we want to be smart about that development and make sure that his training camp is absolutely going to plan.”
Take those words — along with McCarthy noting Darnold is still the starter — with a grain of salt. Coaches have a history of deceptive communication with the media. O’Connell’s words aren’t necessarily a reflection of what he’s really thinking. New England Patriots coaching great Bill Belichick became the master of this, sometimes speaking as if he had a role in the “Now You See Me” movies.
How tough is this decision for O’Connell?
But let’s also give O’Connell the benefit of the doubt. He enters the 2024 season balancing on a triple-edged sword.
Edge No. 1 is winning games. When they hand out playoff spots, a September win counts exactly the same as one in December. So what if O’Connell turns to McCarthy for the season opener and that interception from the preseason game repeats itself? And what if it changes the outcome of the game? There are no do-overs. The Vikings are 0-1. Maybe if Darnold had started, and played so-so but didn’t turn the ball over, the Vikings would have won in a nail-biter?
Edge No. 2 is the development of McCarthy. There’s no way to prove how many quarterbacks have been permanently ruined by starting in Week 1 when they weren’t ready. The bullets fly fast, confidence is shaken, courage shrinks, and the guy never recovers.
That’s something O’Connell must guard against. Maybe guys like Justin Fields or Bryce Young will never be great NFL quarterbacks because they entered the starting realm too soon. Fields went 2-8 as a rookie. Young finished 2-14.
If McCarthy suffers a similar fate, could he recover? His psyche is especially relevant because of his college success. When a player basically only wins in college, especially at the quarterback position, would it be harder to mentally recover from a rookie season of NFL losses?
What about O'Connell's organizational footing?
Edge No. 3 is O’Connell’s potentially short rope. The Vikings haven’t committed long term to him. If this was Andy Reid, Matt LaFleur, Kyle Shanahan, John Harbaugh, or the like, the same pressure would not exist. But O’Connell is rock-around-neck tied to McCarthy’s development. For O’Connell to remain as the Vikings’ head coach — even into next year — the handling of McCarthy must be seen as a success, or at the least trending upward.
Starting McCarthy might cost O’Connell his job. Sitting McCarthy too long might cost O’Connell his job. When Reid benched Mahomes for that first season, who batted an eye? Pressure to play Mahomes didn’t exist. Andy Reid had too much NFL street cred. O’Connell looked good as a rookie head coach with a 13-4 record. But he doesn’t have the luxury of being wrong.
But why Sam Darnold?
Darnold, a six-year veteran, is with his fourth team. Of his many chances to prove his worth as an NFL starter, he’s never made good on it. He started his career with the Jets, and did little more than become famous for his “seeing ghosts” comment.
However, he had an 8-9 record with the Panthers, and got to the Super Bowl as a backup for the San Francisco 49ers in 2023. So maybe O’Connell can lean on the fact Darnold remained under pressure last season, even though he started only one game. Being on a loaded team, Darnold needed to be ready at any point — including the Super Bowl — if something happened to Brock Purdy.
Also, O’Connell could point to Geno Smith’s resurgence in Seattle after posting poor career numbers with the Jets, Giants, and Chargers. But that seems like a flimsy limb on which to stand.
How has the preseason moved the needle?
O’Connell likes what he’s seen this summer from McCarthy, according to the Minnesota Vikings’ YouTube channel. There's enough evidence for this to be a real conversation.
“JJ's certainly seeing some things that will allow him to start phasing into getting into the huddle,” O'Connell said earlier this summer. “You will at some point see JJ be consistently maybe getting a little more one reps there. But at the same time, I feel like Sam earned the right to get the bulk of those reps early on.”
O’Connell said it’s important to treat both quarterbacks individually, according to Sports Illustrated.
“I think it's really important that every single quarterback should be treated with the respect of their own individual process and plan,” O'Connell said. “There is no cookie-cutter way of doing it. There's a feel of how you coach the position. There's a demand you put on the expectations for daily growth and progress. … I'm very fortunate for the first time in my career to be able to partly be in charge to make the decision of when I believe J.J. McCarthy will ready to go.”
What is the bottom line?
The decision needs to be sooner as opposed to later. McCarthy might not be fully ready, but he’s a winner and will likely find a way to keep the Vikings in games and have a chance to win at the end.
And the biggest reasons for McCarthy to get the starting nod in Week 1? Justin Jefferson, T.J. Hockenson, and Jordan Addison. McCarthy won’t have to be perfect because these guys create space. Jefferson is PFF’s No. 1-ranked receiver while Hockenson slots at No. 4 among tight ends. That kind of talent can help any quarterback win games. Addison, if he’s not out of the lineup with a suspension because of legal issues, caught double-digit touchdown passes last year.
Follow Us
Subscribe