This season, the NFL has witnessed two of the best rookie performances by offensive players in recent memory. Los Angeles Rams receiver Puka Nacua and Houston Texans quarterback C.J. Stroud would be obvious AP Offensive Rookie of the Year winners in any other year. Unfortunately, they will have to compete for an award they both deserve.

Nacua — a fifth-round pick out of Washington — had one of the most unexpected breakouts by a rookie player, recording 96 receptions for 1,327 yards and five touchdowns. He is second in the NFL in receiving yards and fifth in receptions.

Stroud has been just as impressive, posting 3,621 passing yards, 20 touchdowns (to just five interceptions), and a passer rating of 98.7. He leads the league in interception rate and is fifth in passer rating while leading the Texans to a surprising 7-6 start.

This Rookie of the Year race could be just as tight as last year, when New York Jets wide receiver Garrett Wilson won the award, garnering 64.2% vote share to edge out Seattle Seahawks running back Kenneth Walker III, who had 51.6%. While both players have strong cases only one can win the award, and Puka Nacua should be the front-runner.

Why Puka Nacua is the NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year favorite

While C.J. Stroud is having a great season, Puka Nacua is poised to set rookie records. The Rams wideout is nine catches away and 146 receiving yards away from setting the NFL rookie marks in those categories. With two games left in the season, Nacua should meet both of those benchmarks, as he is already in the top five all-time among rookie players.

It is also worth noting that Nacua has overtaken former NFL MVP Cooper Kupp as the Rams' number-one wide receiver. Nacua is averaging 88.5 receiving yards per game to Kupp's 64.5 yards per contest and is outperforming him in every other per-game category.

Six rookie receivers in the modern era have surpassed 1,200 receiving yards in a season; only one failed to win the Offensive Rookie of the Year. That was Justin Jefferson in 2020, who lost out to Justin Herbert as the Los Angeles Chargers QB set a rookie record with 31 touchdown passes. Nacua is performing just as well as Jefferson did that season, but C.J. Stroud is not quite the same level as Herbert — especially with touchdown production.

Stroud lags behind previous quarterbacks who won Offensive ROY in terms of QBR. He has a QBR of 54.8 — good for only 16th in the NFL. Looking at previous QBs who took home the award, Justin Herbert had a QBR of 62.6, Kyler Murray's was 57.7, and Dak Prescott posted a 77.6.

Part of the case against Stroud stems from the concussion he suffered in Week 14 against the New York Jets. Stroud missed Week 15 and is set to miss the Texans' Week 16 games versus the Cleveland Browns. Not only do these two lost games severely hurt his statistical profile, but Houston's ability to win in Week 15 without Stroud shows that the team's turnaround is less of a result of his play on the field. As unfortunate as that is for Stroud, voters will want to see a full season of work, and that is an advantage that Nacua has over Stroud.

Both Puka Nacua and C.J. Stroud have been Pro Bowl-level players this year, but with Nacua on the verge of breaking rookie records, it will be difficult to pry the AP Offensive Rookie of the Year Award away from the Los Angeles Rams wideout.