For all of the success the Phoenix Mercury have had, they face their biggest obstacle in the 2025 WNBA Finals: the Las Vegas Aces.
The latter defeated the Indiana Fever on Tuesday in an overtime thriller to advance to the final round of competition. However, the Aces hold a 3-1 season series against Phoenix and have dominated throughout those three wins.
Even with the Mercury making history en route to the WNBA Finals, there are still some concerns that they need to address before Friday's Game 1.
The Mercury have to start hot early
The statistics for Phoenix's first quarter woes don't tell the whole story. They average 19.4 points in the quarter, which is the third-worst (including teams eliminated from the playoffs).
The efficiency is what is concerning, with the team shooting an abysmal 38.4 percent from the field and 25 percent from three. These metrics also rank towards the bottom of the barrel for WNBA playoff teams.
Even though the Mercury have pulled off gritty wins, starting strong is a necessity against the Aces. They've shot nearly 50 percent from the field in the opening frame.
While they've taken more efficient shots at the basket, they have players like A'ja Wilson and Jackie Young, who have been the driving force for Las Vegas.
Both have consistently attacked the rim and have made defenses pay. Not to mention, Young is a sniper from deep, and the reigning MVP has shown flashes from beyond.
Missing shots from deep can quickly turn into a wide lead for the Aces.
A'ja Wilson has caused the Mercury problems
Phoenix isn't receiving any special treatment from the WNBA's points per game leader. She's tortured teams this season, but Wilson has been the Mercury's kryptonite.
She's consistently been at the foul line, using her physicality on the low-post, and taking advantage of Phoenix having no true center to defend her once she gets the ball.
Her numbers against the Mercury back up the perceived dominance. Averaging 25 points, 15.7 rebounds, and three assists per game in 33 minutes is nothing short of absurd. It's also realistic for a player of Wilson's caliber.
The No. 4-seeded Phoenix squad not playing a traditional center can hurt them in a scenario like this. The post-moves inside the paint can force the defense to collapse and let Las Vegas's perimeter players go to work.
Furthermore, she loves the moment. As an example, Wilson made WNBA history by being the first-ever player to score 35+ points in close-out games in the same year's playoffs.
This is only a microcosm of the problems she can cause.
Cold shooting from Phoenix could be deciding factor in WNBA Finals
Defense into offense has been the Mercury's bread and butter up to this point. Still, a team has to hit shots at some point. The majority of those shots have come when the game is close or to finish off an opponent.
It might not be that way with Las Vegas, however. Their constantly switching defense can limit space for shooters. They also play a similar style to the Indiana Fever when it comes to defense.
They'll switch, but simultaneously play a zone defense. This denies the wings the opportunity for an easy catch-and-shoot situation. Players like Sami Whitcomb, Kahleah Copper, and Satou Sabally can have a more difficult time getting quality shots.
That alone can force Alyssa Thomas to create her own shot, which isn't her specialty in the slightest. Her specialty is setting up her teammates.
No matter what, “the engine” can find her teammates, but it might not be pretty if they're heavily contested or simply missing their shots.
With the WNBA Finals set to begin on Friday, the Mercury limiting Wilson, having a strong first quarter, and executing on their shots will be decisive in their pursuit of a fourth championship.
