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UFC Mexico City has reached a fever pitch and it's finally time for our betting prediction and pick for the Co-Main Event taking place in the Featherweight (145) Division. No. 3-ranked Yair Rodriguez will take on No. 4-ranked Brian Ortega as the two proud Mexican fighters meet for a rematch. Check out our UFC odds series for our Rodriguez-Ortega prediction and pick.
Yair Rodriguez (18-4) has gone 10-3-0-1 in the UFC en route to becoming one of the most dangerous featherweights on the planet. Since his unfortunate win over Brian Ortega the first time around, he went on to become Interim Champion over Josh Emmett. However, he relinquished the title to Volkanovski and will now begin his run once again. Rodriguez stands 5'11” with a 71-inch reach.
Brian Ortega (15-3) has gone 7-3-0-1 in the UFC since 2014. He's made several runs at the title, but was derailed most recently over a year and a half ago when he dislocated his shoulder against Yair Rodriguez. It's been almost 20 months since he returns to the octagon and he'll be looking for a title-propelling win here. Ortega stands 5'8″ with a 69-inch reach.
Here are the UFC Odds, courtesy of BetOnline.
UFC Mexico City Odds: Yair Rodriguez-Brian Ortega Odds
Yair Rodriguez: -156
Brian Ortega: +136
Over 2.5 rounds: -155
Under 2.5 rounds: +125
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Why Yair Rodriguez Will Win
With Alexander Volkanovski ending his reign as champion, it opens up the door for Yair Rodriguez to once again make his title dreams come true. He's arguably been the best fighter in this division besides Volk and he's already got a win over Brian Ortega. While the win was on a count of injury, Rodriguez proved to be the more durable fighter that night and walked away unscathed. He'll have a huge mental advantage over Ortega with the win and training in his home of Mexico ahead of this fight.
If this meeting is anything like the first between these two, Yair Rodriguez should still have the noticeable advantage in speed. He's much more active with his leg kicks than Ortega and he could overwhelm him with his energy alone. Expect Rodriguez to come out of the gates hot, yet measured as he's intent on giving this crowd a show. He'll have to be careful on the ground against Ortega, but his last two fights have shown he can hang on the mat.
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Why Brian Ortega Will Win
Brian Ortega was feeling great ahead of his last fight and it was disappointing to everyone to see how it played out. It'll be almost 20 months since Ortega saw his last action in the octagon and it'll be interesting to see how mobile he is after the injury. It's nothing to scoff at when it comes to coming back from injury, and it'll be even tougher for Ortega to acclimate to the elevation. Expect him to look towards his jiu-jitsu from success in this fight.
We didn't get much of a chance to see Ortega striking with Rodriguez, but he'll have to be careful of the low calf kicks and not give up his back at any point. Expect Ortega to also attack the ankle locks and knee bars if he finds himself down in this fight. He'll need to come out with energy and match the intensity that Rodriguez is sure to bring on Saturday.
Final Yair Rodriguez-Brian Ortega Prediction & Pick
It's good to see both fighters running this one back and wanting a definitive decision before either of them get another title shot. Of course, Rodriguez came out on top the first time, but we didn't get much of a chance to see these two go at it for more than a round. Yair Rodriguez proves to be the more dynamic striker and he could see success with the leg kicks if Ortega leaves them unchecked.
Brian Ortega was still in California less than a week before fight week and it's unclear whether he's taken time to acclimate to the elevation. Coming in off of an injury, his cardio will be very questionable given the circumstances of his return.
Ultimately, I think Yair Rodriguez will be the faster fighter here and his combination of energy and cardio wills him to a victory. He's been much more active since the first meeting between these two and with the emotion he fights with, the roof will blow off the building when he makes his entrance. Let's ride with Yair Rodriguez to get the win in Mexico City.
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Final Yair Rodriguez-Brian Ortega Prediction & Pick: Yair Rodriguez (-156)
