The UFC is back in action for what President Dana White has labeled “the greatest event in all of combat sports history” as UFC Noche gets underway from The Sphere in Las Vegas. We bring you another betting prediction and pick as Mexico’s Yazmin Jauregui will take on Brazil’s Ketlen Souza in the Strawweight (115) Division. Check out our UFC odds series for our Jauregui-Souza prediction and pick.
Yazmin Jauregui (11-1) has gone 3-1 since her promotional debut in 2022. Right from the start, she’s been tasked with tough competition and following a loss to Denise Gomes, she bounced back most recently with a unanimous decision over Sam Hughes. She comes into this fight as the heavy favorite looking to make her country proud on Mexican Independence Day. Jauregui stands 5’3″ with a 64-inch reach.
Ketlen Souza (14-4) comes in with a 1-1 UFC record since her debut in 2023. While she dropped her first UFC appearance to Karine Silva in a tough loss, she bounced back nicely with a unanimous decision win over Marnic Mann. Now she’ll look to do the improbably as she tries to overcome the betting odds and win this fight. Souza stands 5’3″ with a 63-inch reach.
Here are the Noche UFC 306 Odds, courtesy of DraftKings.
Noche UFC 306 Odds: Yazmin Jauregui-Ketlen Souza Odds
Yazmin Jauregui: -500
Ketlen Souza: +380
Over 2.5 rounds: -270
Under 2.5 rounds: +200
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Why Yazmin Jauregui Will Win
Yazmin Jauregui will make the walk representing the Mexican flag and fighting for the second time this year. As an undefeated prospect, the time to lose her “0” was coming and clearly benefitted her in the following fight against Sam Hughes. Having an undefeated record often carries pressure along with it, but Jauregui did a great job of staying loose and sticking to her game plan during the recent bout. She’s an extremely polished and technical striker for how young she is and she’s continuing to grow each time she steps into the octagon. We’ve also seen strong displays of toughness from her and if the fight turns into a brawl, you can expect Jauregui’s chin to hold solid during the chaos.
Jauregui comes into this fight as the rightful favorite due to here well-rounded fighting style, but she’ll have to remain diligent with her defense as her opponent is known for her power and aggressive striking. Jauregui is typically conscious of her defense when boxing in range, but she’ll need to use her control in shifting in and out while making her opponent miss. Jauregui is yet to be taken down during any of her UFC bouts, so expect this fight to take place solely on the feet. From there, the fighter from Mexico will look to implement her forward-marching style as she tries to dominate this fight for three rounds.
Why Ketlen Souza Will Win
Ketlen Souza improved greatly from her first time in the UFC octagon and her performance over Marnic Mann was a solid indicator that she’s beginning the refine her game a bit more. She didn’t look quite sharp during her debut against Karine Silva, but she was also tasked with fighting a dominating grappler. Her best performances come from her boxing in the pocket and she’ll have a more than willing dance partner in Jauregui to trade with. Souza does a tremendous job of shelling with her arm guard and quickly closing the distance where she likes to attacks with short hooks and uppercuts. She’ll also have a good matchup in terms of size against Jauregui, so we should see Souza implement her aggressive game plan to its fullest extent.
Whatever Ketlen Souza will be lacking in speed against Jazmin Jauregui, she more than makes up for it with her striking power. Souza has eight wins on her record via knockout and we’ve see Jauregui struggle to finish opponents at the UFC level. While she may have trouble keeping up with the output and consistency of her opponent, Souza can use that to her advantage by waiting for openings and exploding into her shots when the timing is right. If she’s able to hurt Jauregui for even a second, expect Souza to waste no time in chasing the finish and using her hands to put this one away.
Final Yazmin Jauregui-Ketlen Souza Prediction & Pick
This should be a very fun fight on the Prelims and we’ll be in for a chaotic striking display when these two meet. Yazmin Jauregui is the much more technical striker and should have an easier time finding her mark throughout this fight. Still, Ketlen Souza is very dangerous from in close and her dirty boxing could find the chin and end this fight early.
Still, we have to side with the experience and poise we’ve seen from Jauregui this early into her career. She’s far more active with her striking to all three levels and if she’s able to slightly improve her striking defense, she should be able to cruise to the convincing victory in this one. Let’s roll with Yazmin Jauregui to win this fight by decision.
Final Yazmin Jauregui-Ketlen Souza Prediction & Pick: Yazmin Jauregui (-500); OVER 2.5 Rounds (-270)
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