After coming into the 2023 season as one of the favorites to win the World Series, the San Diego Padres fell flat, finishing the year with an 82-80 record and missing out on the playoffs. On paper, the Padres should have been a successful ballclub. Most players on the team had solid, if not good years, but the Padres simply could not find ways to win games. The team was ninth in MLB in WAR — ahead of the likes of the Arizona Diamondbacks and Milwaukee Brewers.

The question for the Padres now becomes: do they trust the current players to figure things out and become a winning club, continue to spend and look to upgrade, or rebuild altogether? Regardless of which direction the club decides to go, here are two moves the Padres must make this offseason.

Re-sign Blake Snell, let Seth Lugo and Michael Wacha walk

One of the few bright spots for the Padres last year was pitcher Blake Snell. Snell is the current favorite to win the NL Cy Young Award, finishing the year with a 2.25 ERA and 234 strikeouts across 180. He also led Major League Baseball with just 5.8 hits allowed per nine innings. Snell was especially effective from June onward, posting a minuscule 1.23 ERA across his last 21 starts, barely allowing a hit every other inning. He also led all MLB hurlers in pitching run value.

With three of the Padres' top four starting pitchers — Snell, Seth Lugo, and Michael Wacha — all entering free agency this offseason, San Diego faces some tough financial decisions. Lugo and Wacha were both solid in 2023, with ERAs of 3.57 and 3.22 respectively while both throwing more than 130 innings, but age and injuries are a factor for each of them. Lugo will be 34 by the time next season comes around and last year was his first as a starting pitcher since 2017. As for Wacha, he has not made more than 24 starts in a season since 2017.

The advanced stats show that Lugo and Wacha both overperformed in 2023. Lugo had an expected ERA of 4.48, and while he ranked in the 97th percentile in fastball run value, his breaking and offspeed pitches both ranked in the 20th percentile or lower. Wacha had an expected ERA of 4.30, though he had an above-average value in all three pitch categories. Lugo and Wacha will both receive significant attention in the free agent market, though it is likely that neither will perform at the level they did in 2023.

The Padres had strong starting pitching in 2023 — just not the level you would expect from a World Series contender. Blake Snell is the cornerstone and should be re-signed at all costs. Seth Lugo and Michael Wacha, while productive players, will not be worth the money they are looking for.

Re-sign Josh Hader and bring in an elite set-up man

Closer Josh Hader was elite again, converting 33/38 save opportunities while posting a 1.28 ERA on the year — the second-best of his career. The problem for the Padres was putting Hader in save situations. San Diego relievers combined for a WAR of -2.8 in 2023, 22nd among MLB clubs, and Padres pitchers not named Josh Hader were just 3/26 in save chances.

One of the elite set-up men in the game in the last few years has been New York Yankees left-hander Wandy Peralta. The 32-year-old has a 2.96 ERA over the last three seasons and has consistently been among the best in the league at limiting hard contact. If the Padres want a right-handed option, then Reynaldo Lopez is an attractive option. Lopez is coming off another solid year in 2023, putting up a 3.27 ERA while pitching 10-plus games for three different clubs. His fastball averages 98 miles per hour while he ranked in the 90th percentile in MLB in whiff rate.

Either player would be a big upgrade for a San Diego bullpen desperately in need of a consistent option outside of Josh Hader.