Continuity is key to the Golden State Warriors' hopes of repeating as NBA champions in 2022-23.
Barring a significant injury to Stephen Curry or one of his teammates trying to sulk his way out of the Bay, don't expect Golden State to make any major trades this season. The stakes of back-to-back titles are simply too high for the Warriors to rock the boat unless their hand is forced by another season lost to injury or an individual malcontent.
Should either of those worst-case scenarios come to pass, though, it's not difficult to deduce what type of move Golden State might make. Steve Kerr's “foundational six” is set, but the playing rotation below them is in a true state of flux. Extension negotiations with a trio of indispensable players are already somewhat fraught, and Joe Lacob made clear over the summer there's a $400 million line in the sand the Warriors' payroll won't cross going forward.
Again, it'd be something close to stunning if Golden State traded one of its top contributors or young prospects this season. Circumstances change fast in the NBA, though, a reality these two players could learn quickly if the Warriors' title defense doesn't go as smoothly as planned.
James Wiseman
The nature of Wiseman's likely role in 2022-23 has been obvious since last season ended with Kevon Looney entrenched as Golden State's starting center. Still, Kerr made certain to keep expectations for the third-year center in appropriate check leading up to training camp, confirming Wiseman will come off the bench and noting his development rests on health more than anything else.
There's a role for Wiseman to play for the Warriors during the regular season: Catching lobs, running the floor, blocking shots and most importantly, consistently making sound reads within the team context on both sides of the ball. But Wiseman thriving in that limited capacity would be a luxury for the reigning champions, a sign of what could come in the future rather than a trump card that would put them over the top in the playoffs, when they'll inevitably commit even further to small-ball.
Looney signed a three-year, $22.5 million contract in July with a partial guarantee in its final season, bargain value for a borderline elite defender and canny operator as a screener and passer who doesn't turn 27 until February. Wiseman, meanwhile, has a $12.1 million team option—one sure to be exercised by the late October deadline—on his rookie deal for 2023-24, the earliest season him supplanting Looney in the lineup is even remotely plausible.
With Draymond Green, Andrew Wiggins and Jordan Poole all needing new contracts next summer, could Golden State cut bait on Wiseman with a trade to save tens of millions in tax payments? Lacob's well-known personal affinity for the talented, raw seven-footer's game can't be overlooked here, just like any notions management may have about the contract parameters sought by Green, Wiggins and Poole. The possibility of Klay Thompson taking a pay cut once his current deal expires after next season is another factor to consider.
Bottom line: Wiseman is unlikely to provide Golden State $12 million worth of value in 2023-24, and the Warriors are already pinching pennies to avoid an even more exorbitant tax bill. That alone makes the No. 2 overall pick of the 2020 draft a potential trade candidate, even before accounting for Looney cementing himself as a fixture during Golden State's championship run.
Jordan Poole
The offensive dynamism Poole put on display in his first taste of playoff basketball was a sight to behold.
He shot a remarkable 62.7% on twos in the postseason, not mention 45.6% on catch-and-shoot triples, per NBA.com/stats. Such shot-making prowess against elite competition makes Poole extremely valuable all by itself, but focusing on scoring alone does Poole's game a disservice. He's an extremely creative ball handler and ever-improving passer, by far the Warriors' best perimeter playmaker beyond Curry.
But Poole is up for an extension on his rookie deal, and if he can't reach an agreement with Golden State before October 17th there's a chance he commands the max in restricted free agency next summer. Curry, obviously, has shown no signs of slowing down at 34. Poole was easy prey for star ball handlers when targeted on defense in the playoffs, while lineups featuring he and Curry posted a below-average defensive rating of 113.3, per Cleaning the Glass.
The Warriors, to be clear, definitely want to retain Poole long-term. The question is if his presence looms larger going forward than those of Green and Wiggins, each of whom provides Golden State more contextual value than Poole with a supernova playmaker like Curry still at the peak of his powers. Bob Myers would want a haul in exchange for trading Poole while he's still under team control, but there are only so many players who could really make a difference for the Warriors playing on contracts substantially cheaper than Poole's next one.
Golden State's place in the championship hierarchy would fall without Poole. But if failed extension talks mar his relationship with management, there at least exists a world in which the Warriors move off him early, easing spending burdens before next summer and relying even more on Curry's singular offensive brilliance to repeat as champions.
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