The true backbone of this Denver Nuggets team, there is no doubt that the former Orlando Magic star in Aaron Gordon isn't afraid to do the dirty work en route to playing in his first-ever NBA Finals. It is about that time to check out our NBA odds series where our Aaron Gordon series points average prediction and pick will be revealed.
The fourth overall pick by the Magic in the 2014 NBA Draft, the Arizona Wildcat product came alive in Game 4 of the Western Conference Finals as he dropped 22 points on an extremely efficient 9/14 shooting from the field. As a whole, Gordon has averaged 13 points per game in the postseason compared to his 16.3 PPG during the postseason. Nevertheless, despite his drop in scoring production, Gordon has the ability to catch fire when given the opportunity.
Here are the NBA odds, courtesy of FanDuel
2023 NBA Finals Odds: Aaron Gordon series points average prediction
Aaron Gordon Over 12.5: (-110)
Aaron Gordon Under 12.5: (-104)
Why Aaron Gordon Could Hit the Over
First things first, it was Gordon that wasn't necessarily scoring a lot of points in the box score prior to his eruption in Game 4, as the 27-year-old power-forward went nine straight games scoring less than 15 points. Alas, Gordon switched his focus on being an intimidating defensive presence while getting out on transition for some alley-oop dunks. However, don't be surprised if Gordon really gets after things on the offense side of the floor in this series.
Believe it or not, Aaron Gordon will end up hitting the over in points in this series if he is able to get his three-point shot going from the opening tip of Game 1. Throughout the regular season, Gordon shot close to a career-high from three-point distance at 34.7%. When taking a closer look, Gordon is right around that mark with a 35% conversion rate from deep during the postseason. After connecting on 3-5 three's in the closeout sweep of the LA Lakers nine days ago, the recipe for Gordon eventually averaging at least 13 points per game in the NBA Finals will most likely come down to whether he is feeling himself from beyond the arc.
Not to mention, it may end up being extremely difficult for the Miami Heat to get a body on Gordon when he is driving to the rack. Above all else, AG may be the strongest individual on the court as it may come easy for him to blow past defenders for a powerful layup or dunk.
Why Aaron Gordon Could Hit the Under
Obviously, the main reason that Aaron Gordon might not hit the over in points will be due to the fact that one of the NBA's best defenders in Jimmy Butler may be assigned to AG on defense more often than not. While it will not be surprising to see Butler on Jamal Murray at times as well due to his elite perimeter play, Gordon will certainly have to keep the Miami star on his toes if he wants to make an impact in the scoring department.
Without a doubt, having Butler attached to your hip is a difficult matchup, but the amount of weapons that the Denver Nuggets possess may also hinder Gordon's scoring ability throughout this series. In fact, Gordon is one of six Nuggets that is averaging double-digit points as you truly never know where the offense is going to come from if you're Denver.
Another reason why Gordon will hit the under on his 12.5 points average in this series will be due to the part that he attempts only the fourth-most shot attempts on the team at just a shade under ten per game. With that being said, it will end up being that much more vital for Gordon to shoot efficiently, as he will need to average close to 50% shooting from the field throughout the entirety of the series if he wants to see his points per game round up to 13 apiece.
Final Aaron Gordon series points average Prediction & Pick
Clearly, no one can deny how important Aaron Gordon is to the Denver Nuggets ever since he was traded to the Mile High City back in early 2021. Not to mention, but Gordon has proved time and time again that he is able to rise to the occasion when the pressure is on. Alas, put your trust in Gordon to do just enough shooting-wise to average at least 12.5 points per game.
Final Aaron Gordon series points average Prediction & Pick: Over 12.5 (-110)