The Home Run Derby is among us, and we are excited to see some sluggers clobber some baseballs into the seats at Glove Life Field in Arlington, Texas. We're here to share our MLB odds series, make a 2024 Home Run Derby prediction, and show you how to watch.
Pete Alonso is the biggest favorite to win the derby, as he has won it twice. However, he fell short last season, tumbling in the first round to Julio Rodriguez. Marcell Ozuna is another favorite to win it this season, and it will be his first Home Run Derby. Gunnar Henderson will also participate in his first Home Run Derby and has the third-best odds. Likewise, Bobby Witt is partaking in his first Home Run Derby.
Other contenders include Adolis Garcia, who will be in his second consecutive Home Run Derby after losing in the first round last season. Additionally, Jose Ramirez will return to the Home Run Derby after participating in the 2022 Home Run Derby and flaming out in the first round. Teoscar Hernandez also makes his Home Run derby debut.
Let's take a look at the five main contenders, in addition to Ramirez and Hernandez, and see who has the best odds of winning the 2024 Home Run Derby in front of a packed crowd in Arlington.
Here are the MLB Odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
MLB Odds: Home Run Derby Odds
Pete Alonso: +300
Marcell Ozuna: +380
Gunnar Henderson: +430
Bobby Witt Jr.: +470
Adolis Garcia: +500
How to Watch Home Run Derby
Time: 8:00 PM ET/5:00 PM PT
TV: ESPN
Stream: fuboTV (Click for free trial)
Why Pete Alonso Will Win
Alonso won the 2019 Home Run Derby and the 2021 Home Run Derby. However, he failed to get out of the first round last season and has struggled to win his third trophy over the past two tries. Alonso has fallen victim to brackets in the past two years. Yet, there will be no first-round bracket. Alonso must finish among the four best home run hitters in the first round. Ultimately, there is a good chance he does that. But can he win it all?
The only thing working against him is his age. Remarkably, no one over the age of 28 has won the Home Run Derby since 2015. It is a young man's game, and Alonso may be fighting against Father Time.
Why Marcell Ozuna Will Win
Ozuna is entering his first Home Run Derby. Amazingly, he has carried the Braves this year in a season where they have struggled with injuries and inconsistency. Ozuna currently leads the Braves with 26 home runs heading into the All-Star Break and will look to showcase his power in front of numerous spectators.
Ozuna is also the oldest player in the Home Run Derby at 33. Like we noted with Alonso, no one over the age of 28 has won it since 2015 and few rarely do.
Why Gunnar Henderson Will Win
Henderson is also a popular pick to win it all. So far, he leads the Orioles with 27 home runs. Henderson also has some success in Arlington, batting .250 with two hits, one of which was a home run, in two games at Globe Life Field. Therefore, expect him to try and smack the baseball over the right-field fence. Even if he does not win it, we expect him to finish among the top four. That lefty bat will pay dividends for him.
Why Bobby Witt Jr. Will Win
Witt is a generational talent with an amazing launch angle on his bat. Furthermore, he blasted a 468-foot home run earlier this season, the longest of all the players in this tournament. Hitting that longest home run could bring great rewards if it is the determining factor between an advancement and an elimination.
Why Adolis Garcia Will Win
This is the home team player. Somehow, not many are picking Garcia to win the Home Run Derby. But Garcia also has the most experience in hitting home runs in this ballpark. However, he struggled to compete in last year's tournament. Garcia may overcompensate to try and win this thing, but getting past the second round will be tough.
Why Teoscar Hernandez or Jose Ramirez Will Win
We combined these two because they were worth a mention. Hernandez currently is at +1100, while Ramirez is at +1400. Despite these odds, either of these two can find their way to the top of this derby. Conversely, Hernandez does not have a good launch angle, and his bat speed is poor.
Ramirez is an exceptional hitter. Yet, he has the slowest launch angle out of all the hitters participating in the Home-Run Derby. Ramirez is also a smaller guy and these type of players usually struggle in Home Run Derby contests.
Final Home Run Derby Prediction & Pick
Alonso is the favorite based on his history. He has struggled to get out of the first round for two consecutive seasons. Henderson is the young gun in this tournament, and these types of players usually perform well. Garcia is another hitter that could shock people. Ironically, hitting in his own ballpark could prove to be a deterrent. We like Henderson to get the win here.
Click here for more betting news and predictions
Final Home Run Derby Prediction & Pick: Gunnar Henderson: +430
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