The 2024 NBA Cup (formerly known as the In-Season Tournament) is back for its second edition in 2024, and with the groups being drawn yesterday in Las Vegas, it has become clear there is a ‘Group of Death.' While the Western Conference's depth has been praised for a while, there may be no better indication than the West's Group C in the 2024 NBA Cup, which features the reigning conference champion Dallas Mavericks, 2023 NBA Champion Denver Nuggets, 2022 NBA Champion Golden State Warriors, and two young, exciting teams in the New Orleans Pelicans and Memphis Grizzlies.
Four of the five teams made it to at least the Play-In Tournament, with the only team not to make it out of the regular season being the Grizzlies, who suffered numerous injuries and endured a lengthy Ja Morant suspension to begin the season. The Warriors, who will certainly have a new look and possibly identity next season, fell in the Play-In to the Sacramento Kings, a team the Warriors had eliminated from the playoffs a year earlier.
But neither of those two teams, and certainly none of the Mavericks, Nuggets, and Pelicans, should be taken lightly or underestimated in any way heading into the 2024 NBA Cup.
Last year, the Pelicans reached the semifinals of the knockout stage, making them the only team in this group that surpassed the group stage. However, both the Mavericks and Nuggets, who were also in the same group as New Orleans, were in a three-way point-difference tiebreaker — the Houston Rockets (+10) finished second, while the Mavericks (-8) and Nuggets (-10) placed third and fourth, respectively.
The Warriors, despite having a better point differential than the Minnesota Timberwolves, who finished second in their group last year, were knocked out of contention because of their 2-2 record. Memphis, which did not have Morant at the time, lost each of their four group games and had the second-worst point differential of any team in the tournament (-56).
Things should be quite different for everybody in 2024, though.
Let's break down the NBA Cup's ‘Group of Death' and give some predictions.
2024 NBA Cup Group C predictions
To recap, here are the teams (and their respective 2023-24 regular-season records) in Group C of the 2024 NBA Cup:
- Denver Nuggets (57-25)
- Dallas Mavericks (50-32)
- New Orleans Pelicans (49-33)
- Golden State Warriors (46-36)
- Memphis Grizzlies (27-55)
And for those that don't quite remember, the NBA Cup will feature a group stage in which the five teams in each group (there are three groups per conference) will play each other once. The team with the best record — or, in the case of a tie, point differential, points scored, previous season record, or random drawing — will advance to the knockout stage. In addition to the three group winners, the top second-place team following the same criteria laid out above will advance to the knockout stage as well. That will then lead to an eight-team single-elimination tournament, with the finals crowning an NBA Cup champion.
But I am concerned solely with Group C today. The teams' rosters are nowhere near finalized, especially since the NBA Cup is not set to begin for another four months, but I will try our best based on where the teams are now.
It is reasonable to believe that any of the five teams are capable of finishing atop Group C, because they are. But the team I believe is most likely to finish at the bottom of the group is the Golden State Warriors.
The Warriors have had an eventful offseason, and the biggest event came when longtime player Klay Thompson departed the team to sign with the Dallas Mavericks. While Golden State has done well to soften the blow and continue to build around superstar guard Stephen Curry, the team is undoubtedly flawed and very easily could struggle with consistency as has been their issue the last two seasons.
It should be noted, however, that choosing the Warriors, who have acquired or signed De'Anthony Melton, Kyle Anderson, and Buddy Hield this offseason, as the last team in Group C is more of an analysis of the difficulty and depth of Group C than it is on the Warriors' strengths and weaknesses.
In fourth place, I have the New Orleans Pelicans, who have similarly made some interesting offseason moves. Dejounte Murray is the newest member of the Pelicans as a result of a trade that saw New Orleans send Larry Nance Jr., Cody Zeller, Dyson Daniels, and draft picks to the Atlanta Hawks. The team unfortunately also saw Jonas Valančiūnas depart and join the Washington Wizards.
Although Murray was certainly the best player in the Hawks-Pelicans trade, it's not a certainty that New Orleans has actually improved this offseason. The team should be good and contending for a playoff spot — as long as everyone stays healthy — but there are the ever-lasting questions around Zion Williamson's health and now questions about how Murray, Williamson, and Brandon Ingram, who reportedly wants to be traded to a team that will give him a big contract extension, will be able to fit together on the court.
The Pelicans have been a potential-filled team for many years, and they seemed poised to realize some of that potential last year with a relatively healthy Williamson. However, the Pelicans were demolished by the Los Angeles Lakers in the In-Season Tournament semifinals, and when it came time for the postseason, another inopportune injury prevented Williamson from playing in the Pelicans' 4-0 series loss to the Oklahoma City Thunder.
If the Pelicans' starters are healthy, they will have a good shot to get out of the group, but that is a big if.
While the Denver Nuggets have Nikola Jokic, the best player in this group and in the world, as we saw last season, it's not a guarantee he will be able to carry them through the NBA Cup. And the Nuggets are also going to look and play a little bit differently than in years past.
Denver suffered a big blow this offseason when Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, the team's go-to perimeter defender, left for the Orlando Magic in free agency. And just last night, the Nuggets took another blow after rookie big man DaRon Holmes II, who the team traded up for and took in the first round of the NBA Draft, sustained a torn Achilles tendon during a Summer League game.
Both events will have an impact on the Nuggets this season as Denver head coach Michael Malone will be forced to change around his rotation with Caldwell-Pope's departure and whatever role the Nuggets had planned for Holmes will now have to be scrapped as well.
Like all of the other teams in this group, the Nuggets can very well go 4-0 and make it to the knockout stage, but how Jamal Murray and Michael Porter Jr. play is a big question mark for this team. Neither played particularly well in the playoffs this past season, which is a big reason why Denver fell short in the second round against the Minnesota Timberwolves. If Murray and Porter can tap back into the players they can be, Denver may prove to be unstoppable, but that inconsistency is concerning heading into the 2024 NBA Cup.
The Dallas Mavericks had one of their best seasons in the last decade this past season, with a Western Conference championship, NBA Finals appearance, and 50 regular-season wins to their name. The end was not as great as they would have liked — Dallas lost 4-1 to the Boston Celtics in the Finals — but the team showed a lot of potential for the next few years with the Luka Doncic-Kyrie Irving duo leading the way.
Additionally, Dereck Lively II, a rookie last season, emerged as one of the biggest and most pleasant surprises of the year. His development in Year 2 will be a major determining factor in how far the Mavericks can make it in 2024-25. Additionally, all eyes will be on Doncic's health — he battled through several injuries in the postseason — and if Irving have another season like last year, which was remarked as a redemption season after several controversial and sometimes underwhelming years.
This offseason, the Mavericks have parted ways with Josh Green, Tim Hardaway Jr., and Derrick Jones Jr, while adding Quentin Grimes, Naji Marshall, and Klay Thompson. The moves would seem to be positive ones and could mean an overall upgrade of the roster, but how the Mavericks' 2024 offseason will be judged hinges on whether Thompson continues to decline or if he can be an efficient, meaningful contributor to Dallas this season.
And finally, we have the Memphis Grizzlies, the team that finished without a win in the In-Season Tournament last year. The Grizzlies should be much, much different this year, however, and that is what makes them particularly dangerous in the 2024 NBA Cup.
While the Grizzlies did not do a lot of winning this past season, they were very busy developing and altering a roster that won 51 games in 2022-23. Memphis's core is relatively young and talented, with star point guard Ja Morant leading a team that also includes 2023 NBA Defensive Player of the Year Jaren Jackson Jr. and Desmond Bane.
While he and Morant did not get to play much together last season, Marcus Smart will continue to bring defensive intensity, while Derrick Rose should help mentor Morant as a hyper-athletic guard. And the team, as a whole, is flush with players that very well should make a difference in the regular season, including Luke Kennard, Brandon Clarke (who missed nearly all of last season due to injury), Vince Williams Jr., Santi Aldama, Jake LaRavia, GG Jackson II, Ziaire Williams, and 2024 first-round pick Zach Edey.
How Edey fits with JJJ, a shorter shot-blocking savant, will be interesting, but regardless, Memphis is one of the deepest and most intriguing teams in the league. While their youth and relative inexperience may come to bite them in the NBA Cup, I believe the young, fresh legs could be a major advantage for the Grizzlies come November.
Here are my final predictions for the NBA Cup's Group C:
- Memphis Grizzlies
- Dallas Mavericks
- Denver Nuggets
- New Orleans Pelicans
- Golden State Warriors
The NBA Cup is set to begin on Nov. 12.
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