The Golden State Warriors face a do-or-die Game 7 at Golden 1 Center with potentially much more at stake than hopes of winning back-to-back titles. If the defending champs fall to the Sacramento Kings on Sunday afternoon, the NBA's defining dynasty of the modern era could suddenly go up in flames.
No pressure.
Here are three key adjustments the Warriors must make to take down the Kings in a monumental Game 7.
Start Draymond Green
Jordan Poole deserved all the flak he received for a wild, flailing Game 6 performance, but he's hardly the only Warrior who failed to meet the moment at Chase Center. Poole's many blunders on Friday night were just the most obvious manifestation of a frantic yet listless team-wide effort that reminded of Golden State's topsy-turvy regular season.
Damaging as Poole's been throughout the first round, moving him back to the bench and re-inserting Green as a starter is less about him than the Dubs' collective need for spirit, physicality and intensity with their back against the wall of elimination on the road.
The Kings' back against the wall, the Warriors somehow saved their worst effort of the series for Game 6.
(via @ArmstrongWinter)https://t.co/Lig9al5Lce
— Warriors Nation (@WarriorNationCP) April 29, 2023
Golden State's traditional starting five of Stephen Curry, Klay Thompson, Andrew Wiggins, Green and Kevon Looney was stellar over the 82-game grind, a trend that's continued in the first round. That group's net rating versus the Kings is +19.4, per Cleaning the Glass, a gaudy, team-best number accomplished by dominant first-shot defense sand solid efficiency on the other end buoyed by owning the offensive glass.
The opening quintet with Poole in Green's place has also been effective for Golden State, and is Steve Kerr's most-used lineup through six games. We'll surely see it again in Game 7.
But the season hangs in the balance, and keeping Green on the bench to start Sunday's contest leaves the Warriors lacking the defensive teeth and overall stylistic flexibility that's needed to beat Sacramento—even before accounting for the emotional jolt Draymond always gives the Dubs.
Green is more responsible for building Golden State's dynasty than anyone in the organization outside Curry. It'd be a shocking mistake of game-specific strategy and team-wide identity if he wasn't back on the floor for tipoff in Game 7, joining the Warriors' other foundational veterans.
Don't be surprised if Kerr has a quick hook for Looney, by the way. The Kings' pace is absolutely relentless, and they were more disruptive than ever on Friday when tasking Looney and Green with exploiting a winning numbers game behind the point of attack offensively. Should the game get too fast and the Warriors' spacing too crunched, Kerr could veer away from lineups featuring Green and Looney, prioritizing defense while mostly playing small.
Dust off Jonathan Kuminga
So much for Kuminga being a series-long X-factor.
But just because he's been out of the rotation since an ugly first-half stint in Game 4 hardly means Kuminga can't help the Warriors as they face elimination. A couple game-changing adjustments Sacramento made on Friday night, in fact, could finally allow the 20-year-old to impact the action like so many thought he would entering the first round—as long as Kerr gives Kuminga a real chance to play, at least.
Mike Brown surprised the Warriors in Game 6 by mothballing Alex Len from bench units in favor of a small-ball lineup with Trey Lyles at de facto center. Giving Terence Davis some of Davion Mitchell's minutes only made Sacramento more dangerous attacking early in the shot clock and spacing the floor with five shooters.
Kuminga was roasted at times checking De'Aaron Fox and Malik Monk early in the first round, undisciplined with his on-ball approach and lacking a degree of initial lateral burst to keep them out of the paint. The Dubs were helpless containing the ball in Game 6, though, especially when the Kings went small and Golden State—which played both Green and Looney against that downsized quintet at times—switched across all positions.
Kuminga's length, athleticism and (hopeful) defensive versatility could go a long way toward mitigating the effectiveness of Sacramento's small lineup on Sunday, especially when he's sharing the floor with two of Green, Wiggins and Gary Payton II. Here's hoping he's finally taken heed of Kerr's public campaign to get more engaged on the defensive glass.
It's not just that side of the ball where Kuminga's presence could loom large, though. The Kings turned up the pressure on defense even more in Game 6, blitzing Curry and Thompson high up the floor in ball-screen situations, daring the Warriors to beat them behind the play.
Keegan Murray as the last line of defense should be a win for Golden State. Unlike Looney and Green, Kuminga has the explosiveness and creativity as a finisher to crease small openings and eat up space in a hurry on the roll, let alone finish over the top at the rim.
Kerr's confidence in Kuminga has wavered throughout 2022-23. There's a case to be made the Dubs would be in a much better spot, maybe already prepping for a second-round tilt with the Los Angeles Lakers, had he been consistently afforded a long enough leash to play through his mistakes.
Kuminga was ineffective enough defensively and on the glass early in this series to be shelved from the rotation. With just one game left to win or lose, though, he must be given the opportunity to make his presence felt in an on-paper matchup tailored to Kuminga's rare physical gifts—especially considering the tweaks Sacramento rode to a blowout in Game 6.
Limit Stephen Curry-Jordan Poole minutes
There's no denying the Warriors are at their theoretical best offensively with Poole playing alongside Curry. But the former just hasn't been himself in the playoffs, first robbed of burst and balance by a left ankle sprain and then completely discombobulated offensively after bouncing back in a standout Game 4.
Poole could very well explode on Sunday, driving his team to a season-saving victory on the road. But at least until he manages that composed, dynamic hot hand, Golden State should limit the court time Poole gets with Curry to make life hard on the Kings defensively.
Sacramento will target Curry and Poole with Fox and Monk whenever they're on the floor once again in Game 7. Just one pressure point is far more workable defensively than two, though, especially when either Poole or Curry is replaced in the lineup by a stopper like Payton.
Kuminga, Moses Moody and Donte DiVincenzo aren't red meat for Fox and Monk their smaller teammates have proven throughout this series, either.
The Warriors don't have to switch with the maddening willingness they did on Friday, protecting Poole and Curry from being hunted in isolation by putting two on the ball and making Kings role players beat them. Golden State could also switch and overload the strong side of the floor, forcing Fox and Monk to navigate an extra layer of defense behind their preferred matchups. The switch-double is another option better than simply giving Sacramento easy targets.
It's not just Sacramento's predatory pick-and-roll play that should curb the minutes Curry and Poole share in Game 7.
The Dubs have failed throughout the first round to get back on defense and build a wall at the rim, regularly letting the Kings get loose in transition–even after makes. They've been worked on the boards by Sacramento, too, corralling just 66% of defensive rebounds, a playoff-low rate that would've ranked dead last in the regular season as well.
Golden State needs all the size, length and athleticism it can muster to keep the Kings from running amok in the open floor and owning the offensive glass on Sunday. Curry and Poole just shouldn't be on the floor with Fox and Monk, their tandem minutes reserved for other Kings bench lineups and desperate circumstances of time and score.
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