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The San Francisco 49ers are still searching for that elusive sixth Super Bowl ring and will look to shatter their win total. We're here to share our NFL odds series and make the 49ers 2024 over-under wins total prediction and pick.
The 49ers started the 2023 season on a hot streak, winning their first five games, including a 42-10 thrashing of the Dallas Cowboys. But then, they lost three in a row in a stretch where they did not have Deebo Samuel. Ultimately, the stretch included a slate where they fell 19-17 to the Cleveland Browns, 22-17 to the Minnesota Vikings, and 31-17 to the Cincinnati Bengals.
The 49ers then reeled off six victories in a row, including a 34-3 trouncing of the Jacksonville Jaguars and a 42-19 beatdown of the Philadelphia Eagles. Then, they lost 33-19 to the Baltimore Ravens on Christmas Day. The 49ers finished 12-5, breaking the 11-win barrier.
The 49ers added defensive end Leonard Floyd in the offseason as a pass-rushing specialist. Additionally, they signed defensive tackles Malick Collins and Jordan Elliot. But they also lost Arik Armstead. The Niners drafted wide receiver Ricky Pearsall, cornerback Renardo Green, guard Dominick Puni, safety Malik Mustapha, and running back Isaac Guerendo over the first five rounds.
It would not be a Niners' offseason without drama. Therefore, the Brandon Aiyuk contract dispute continues to draw all the headlines and distractions. The Niners must overcome it if they hope to beat the over-under win total.
Here are the NFL odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
NFL Odds: 49ers Win Total Odds
Over 11.5 Wins: +120
Under 11.5 Wins: -148
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Why The 49ers Will Win Over 11.5 Wins
The Niners have plenty of potential to finish with 12 or more wins. Think about it. They are the defending NFC Champions and have been the best team in the NFC over the last few seasons, with some exceptions.
Brock Purdy is the main reason for hope. He broke through the ceiling last season with 31 touchdowns and 11 interceptions. If he can maintain his elevated play and continue to play well, then there will be almost no letdown from this offense. Likewise, Purdy has an excellent supporting cast.
Christian McCaffrey is one of the best players in the league. However, his calf injury worries some, and many believe the injury could hamper their season. The Niners must take caution with his injury and utilize other running backs in their rotation, such as Jordan Mason and Elijah Mitchell. Of course, Guerendo could emerge. The Niners have options behind CMC where they don't need to overly on him.
Samuel and Aiyuk figure to pace the receivers, assuming the Niners get the deal done. Likewise, George Kittle is still one of the best tight ends in the NFL and will continue to make good plays to help solidify this team. The offensive line is still above average despite missing a key block in the Super Bowl. Some free-agent additions to the line will help.
The defense remains one of the best in the NFL, and the team will have a new coordinator, Nick Sorensen. His ability to utilize Nick Bosa and the pass rush will be critical to determining if there is improvement. The secondary remains solid, with Charvarious Ward leading the charge. Talanoa Hufanga is also back after suffering a season-ending injury last season.
The 49ers will win more than 11 games because they have the best talent in the NFC and a quarterback who can move the ball down the field. Additionally, their defense is even better this season.
Why The 49ers Will Not Win Over 11.5 Wins
But things can always go wrong. While the consensus is that Purdy is finally the quarterback the Niners have sought for years, there are still numerous doubters. Some believe he will regress. Others believe his teammates are carrying him despite evidence to the contrary.
The Aiyuk situation also looms over the team and is not a good distraction. Also, there is no telling if Pearsal will be a good pick. While Aiyuk and Samuel have worked out, other wide receivers have not for this team. The Niners also are not guaranteed to have a good offensive line, especially if Trent Williams is not available.
Consider that the Niners' schedule also includes home battles with the Dallas Cowboys and Kansas City Chiefs and road matchups with the Green Bay Packers, Buffalo Bills, and Miami Dolphins. If the Niners don't execute, those could all result in losses.
The Niners will not win over 11 games because there are too many distractions, and the team is slightly weaker on the defensive side. Furthermore, the schedule is much more challenging.
Final 49ers Over-Under Win Total Prediction & Pick
The Niners likely win the NFC West again if they can stay healthy and keep most of their stars intact. The only thing preventing the 49ers from returning to the Super Bowl is themselves. But the schedule is challenging. Overall, this slate is a lot more complicated. Because of that, we could see a scenario where the 49ers lose a few more games than they did last season while still winning the division. Take the under in this one as the Niners take a small step back.
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Final 49ers Over/Under Win Total Prediction & Pick: Under 11.5 Wins: -148
