Two years ago, the San Francisco 49ers took a massive gamble. With their future quarterback situation in question, the team traded three first-round picks to move up in the 2021 NFL Draft. They were able to snag the third overall pick from that deal. With that pick, the 49ers took QB Trey Lance from North Dakota State University.
Lance was a great quarterback prospect, but he wasn't perfect. Regardless, San Francisco took him with the hope of molding him into their franchise QB. Now, in the 2023 offseason, the 49ers have dealt Trey Lance to the Cowboys for a measly fourth-round pick. Lance was discontent with not being the QB2 of the team, and the 49ers fulfilled his request to be traded.
While this move makes sense for Lance, the 49ers are taking an even bigger gamble with this trade. Let's take a look at the reasons why this is a major gamble.
Sam Darnold, 49ers QB2?
49ers Kyle Shanahan revealed earlier that after they announced Sam Darnold to be their QB2, Lance came to the team and requested a trade. Just days ago, San Francisco decided to name the former Jets first-round pick as their backup to Brock Purdy (more on him later). Citing a lack of playing time and desire to get meaningful minutes as a backup, Lance decided he didn't want to be a part of San Francisco.
That's all well and good: I believe the 49ers did right by Lance by trading him to a situation where he could be used better. However, the problem for San Francisco here is that picking Darnold to be their backup over Lance could end up backfiring down the line.
Shanahan's 49ers have an unfortunate history of losing their quarterbacks during the season. Hell, Purdy's rise last season was in large part due to injuries to Lance and then-San Francisco QB Jimmy Garoppolo. Given this history, the team needs to have a reliable QB2 to back up the starter in case of an injury.
Darnold could be that guy for San Francisco, but who knows? His track record isn't exactly stellar: he had a disastrous stint in New York, where his flaws overshadowed the small glimmers of talent. In Carolina, Darnold was unimpressive at best and horrible at worst. Shanahan has an incredibly QB-friendly system in place, but some players don't get used to it due to various reasons. Case in point: Lance's few stints for the 49ers!
The 49ers are essentially hoping that they can “fix” Darnold by plugging him into Shanahan's system. If that doesn't work out, though… San Francisco could be in trouble if Purdy goes down.
Brock Purdy
Now, let's talk about the man of the hour. Brock Purdy is the primary reason why the 49ers were so comfortable trading Trey Lance away. The sophomore quarterback stepped in during the 2022 season when Garoppolo was ruled out due to injury. Dubbed as “Mr. Irrelevant” after being the last pick in the 2022 Draft, Purdy immediately made him relevant by guiding the 49ers to the playoffs, and all the way to the NFC Championship Game.
An injury vs. the Eagles in the NFCCG unfortunately cost San Francisco a shot at the Super Bowl. Still, 49ers fans were encouraged by Purdy's play. It led fans to wonder if keeping Lance was worth it. Clearly, the 49ers FO decided that the few weeks of Purdy-mania was enough to warrant him to stay.
If Purdy continues to be above-average at worst, then great! The many weapons on the 49ers offense allows the QB to not play hero ball all the time. He'll need to step up at times, but he won't be forced to carry the offense on his back. However, we have to acknowledge that Purdy might not be above average next season.
Purdy had a great 2022 season, completing 67% of his passes for a solid 65.6 QBR. He didn't turn the ball over as much as rookies usually do (4 interceptions in 170 passes), and he was efficient in leading the 49ers offense. That being said, that's only a sample size of five regular season games and 2.5 postseason games.
Purdy had the advantage of being “Mr. Irrelevant” working for him. He wasn't well-scouted, and teams didn't have enough time to prepare him. Now that he's entering Week 1 as the starter, the 49ers' opponents will key in on him. They'll look for any weakness Purdy might have and abuse it as much as possible.
To be clear, Purdy looked incredible during his first starts. He was calm and poised in the pocket, completing some seriously tough throws while under pressure. He's a “safe” QB that doesn't put the ball in harm's way. Despite all that, the fact of the matter is that the 49ers are taking a gamble on what is essentially a small sample size without much of a backup plan.
When the 49ers gambled on Trey Lance back in 2021, they at least had Jimmy Garoppolo in their back pocket as a backup in case Lance didn't pan out. If Lance regresses mightily, the Niners will need to fall back on… Sam Darnold. As we've established, Darnold isn't exactly a sure-fire backup, either. The 49ers are playing a dangerous game.
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