The ongoing situation involving Aaron Rodgers and the rest of his career will be one of the biggest storylines of the NFL offseason. And for the Indianapolis Colts, they would be smart to throw their hat into the ring to try and convince the Green Bay Packers to move on.
The writing has been on the wall for an eventual divorce between Rodgers and the Packers, the only team he has known for the entirety of his 18-year NFL career. With Jordan Love waiting in the wings, it seems more likely this offseason than last that we may finally see Rodgers fulfill his Favre-like destiny and get traded late in his career.
Even with the Colts being on record this offseason declaring their want to get away from investing in veteran QBs, an option like Rodgers does not come around often. Any sort of trade value that Rodgers has the Colts likely would be interested in meeting, hence the following trade offers that they should consider.
Trade #1
Colts receive: QB Aaron Rodgers, 2023 3rd rounder (#78 overall)
Packers receive: 2023 1st rounder (4th), 2023 3rd rounder (#79), 2024 2nd (conditional), 2024 4th
The first trade package that the Colts should assemble for Rodgers should focus on just offering up draft picks – they have shown a penchant for being willing to do that in the past for veteran QBs, and they likely would again.
On paper, giving up a top-5 selection for an age-39 QB would seem quite rich, but with reports from Green Bay that they are looking for a deal with two first-round selections, this would be how they would win a potential bidding war.
Outside of the 1st this year, the Colts would also send their 3rd rounder, which just so happens to be one selection after the Green Bay 3rd rounder (which they would receive back). The value of the two 2024 picks is what may swing the tide for this deal, however.
The 4th-round selection is fine, likely just seen as an adder and nothing more – but the conditional nature of the ‘24 2nd is what makes this interesting. As was done in the Carson Wentz deal, conditions were placed on a premium draft pick that fluctuated based on playing time.
So, if Rodgers’ health continues to mostly hold up and the Colts see a value in him being on the field, the conditional 2nd rounder becomes a ‘24 1st-round pick if he plays 75% or more of the team’s offensive snaps, and stays a 2nd rounder if he falls under that mark.
This way, the Colts bake in some protection for their sake, and Green Bay is able to, at worst earn a Day 1, two Day 2, and one Day 3 picks for their troubles.
Trade #2
Colts receive: QB Aaron Rodgers, 2024 5th rounder
Packers receive: WR Michael Pittman Jr, 2023 3rd rounder (#79), 2024 2nd rounder, 2024 3rd rounder
It is all about perception for Green Bay and what they value most in their roster realignment – picks or players. In the first deal, they value the additions they can bring in via the NFL Draft, but in this package, they value young wide receiver talent more.
Heading into the final year of his rookie deal, WR Michael Pittman Jr. should be one of the better free-agency options at his position next offseason. If Green Bay feels confident enough in locking him into a long-term deal (or this trade is contingent on Pittman agreeing to an extension before the deal commences), then bringing in Pittman to pair with Christian Watson for Jordan Love is a great move.
It would seem to go against GM Brian Gutekunst’s thinking, at least in the past, for how he values draft picks versus players. A smart GM understands the value of playing for now while keeping an eye on the future, and Gutekunst could try and parlay any flak he receives from the fan base into focusing on the new weapon the offense added.
While all signs would point towards the Packers being bigger fans of a draft pick-centric haul for Rodgers, you never know what the front office might cook up. If Rodgers is moved this offseason, look for the Colts to potentially be a big player as rumors heat up.
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