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UFC Tampa Bay will feature the return of two fan-favorite bantamweights as Adrian Yañez (17-5) faces undefeated prospect Daniel Marcos (16-0). It's time to continue our UFC odds series with a Yañez-Marcos prediction and pick.
Yañez will look to end his 2024 on a high note after going 0-2 with two knockout losses in 2023. The former ranked contender rebounded from the first losing streak of his career with a first-round knockout win over Vinicius Salvador in May.
Marcos has done nothing but win for nearly a decade but is competing for just the fifth time in the UFC. The Peruvian will look to take a big leap at UFC Tampa Bay after beating John Castañeda by unanimous decision at UFC Louisville in June.
Here are the Yañez-Marcos UFC Tampa Odds, courtesy of DraftKings.
UFC Tampa Odds: Adrian Yañez-Daniel Marcos Odds
Adrian Yañez: +180
Daniel Marcos: -218
Over 2.5 rounds: -135
Under 2.5 rounds: +105
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Why Adrian Yañez Will Win
Marcos is not the typical undefeated prospect that fans tend to drool over. He is already 31 years old — surprisingly making him the older fighter by eight months — but only began training in MMA at 21 without any prior experience. There is still a lot to like in his game but he is not the prodigy that Khabib Nurmagomedov was when he entered the UFC.
On top of being the best fighter Marcos will have faced by a wide margin, Yañez will get the fight he wants. Yañez is as pure of a boxer as a modern MMA fighter can be and gets an opponent in Marcos who has completed just one takedown in his four UFC bouts. The last time Marcos fought a boxing-based fighter, he struggled mightily with Davey Grant, who out-struck him 70-48 on significant strikes and nearly handed him his first loss. Yañez also owns a win over Grant in a Fight of the Night affair back in 2021.
Typically, when Yañez is at his best, he takes a couple of minutes to get his reads on an opponent. Eleven of his 17 career wins — 65 percent — have been by knockout with just three of them coming in under three minutes. In contrast, Marcos has tended to allow opponents to gain on him as the fight progresses, as evidenced by John Castañeda nearly stealing a victory over him in his most recent fight with a last-minute head kick.
Why Daniel Marcos Will Win
Marcos will have to get out of his comfort zone to get this win. While he loves to set the tone early and get ahead with his strikes, that falls directly into the trap Yañez loves to set to organize his victories. Marcos is typically a striker but has the wrestling advantage in this matchup, which he could implement. Like most, Yañez is almost certainly expecting a striking battle and a change of game plan could catch him off guard.
A wrestling-heavy game plan is unlikely, but the only time Marcos landed a takedown in the UFC was against Grant when he was getting out-boxed on the feet. Striking at range is where Yañez wants to be, and while that typically also applies to Marcos, closing the gap and making this a dirty fight in the pocket would favor him more.
When he is pressured, Yañez can be prone to engaging in close, where he has power but is extremely undisciplined defensively, particularly with his poor habit of getting off-balanced with his base and leaving his chin exposed. In Yañez's two UFC losses, he has been dropped a combined three times. Marcos has landed three knockdowns in his last five fights with all of them coming when he closes the distance.
Final Adrian Yañez-Daniel Marcos Prediction & Pick
This fight will be a battle between two strikers who want to stand and throw. In 13 combined UFC fights, they have just one total takedown between them. The fighter who finds his groove first will get the win and historically, in pure striking battles, that has been Yañez. While he has knockout losses to Rob Font and Jonathan Martinez, Marcos is not nearly as diverse of a striker.
This is a sizeable step up in competition for Marcos, coming off a win over Castañeda, and a fight that Yañez jumped at the opportunity of. Marcos is getting the undefeated bias from oddsmakers in what will be his first fight in front of a full-sized UFC crowd.
Final Adrian Yañez-Daniel Marcos Prediction & Pick: Adrian Yañez (+180)
