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The Miami Dolphins will make its playoff return as they had to Orchard Park, New York to face off against the Buffalo Bills on Wildcard Weekend. It's time to continue our NFL odds series and make a Dolphins-Bills prediction and pick.
The Dolphins had an up-and-down season on their way to a 9-8 finish and second in the AFC East. Ultimately, the Fins started 3-0. But they lost the next three games and were 3-3 before embarking on a five-game winning streak. Then, they lost five in a row before finishing the season with an unimpressive win over the New York Jets to end the season. Injuries were the biggest downfall as the Dolphins persevered despite numerous ailments. Significantly, the biggest injury is to their starting quarterback Tua Tagovailoa, who is still in concussion protocol for the injury he suffered on Christmas Day. Skylar Thompson will start this game for the Dolphins.
For our Dolphins-Bills preview and full Wild Card playoff predictions, listen below:
The Bills went 13-3 to win the AFC East and finish as the second seed in the AFC. Significantly, they started 6-1 before losing two in a row. The Bills then finished the season with seven wins in a row. Moreover, they have endured much over the last few weeks, with safety Damar Hamlin suffering a cardiac arrest on the field. But Hamlin is out of the hospital and at home. Now, the Bills can focus on winning in the playoffs for him and all the Buffalo fans.
The Dolphins lead the all-time series 61-52-1. However, the Bills are 8-2 over the last 10 games in the head-to-head matchup, including a series split this season. The Bills are 3-1 all-time in the playoffs, including 2-0 at home.
Quarterback Josh Allen has been the centerpiece of the Bills for the last few years. Thus, he is the most significant reason they are contenders in the AFC. Allen is 3-3 in the playoffs and hoping to make it further this season. Also, he has a 106.6 passer rating with 1718 yards passing, 14 touchdowns, 11 interceptions, 371 rushing yards and a touchdown through six games.
Here are the Dolphins-Bills NFL odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
NFL Odds: Dolphins-Bills Odds
Miami Dolphins: +13.5 (-108)
Buffalo Bills: -13.5 (-112)
Over: 43.5 (-108)
Under: 43.5 (-112)
How To Watch Dolphins vs. Bills
TV: CBS
Stream: NFL, Paramount+
Time: 1 PM ET/10 AM PT
*Watch Dolphins-Bills LIVE with fuboTV (click for a free trial)*
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Why The Dolphins Could Cover The Spread
The Dolphins are in trouble without Tagovailoa. Now, they must refocus on attempting to win without him. Thompson is making his first career playoff start. Significantly, Dolphin quarterbacks making their first playoff start are 2-5 historically. Can Thompson do the unthinkable and shock the Bills?
The Dolphins have injury issues on the ground game, too. Unfortunately, Raheem Mostert has a broken thumb and may not play this weekend. He has rushed 181 times for 891 yards and three touchdowns while catching 31 passes for 202 yards and two scores. Conversely, they may need to replace his production. Jeff Wilson Jr. has rushed 84 times for 392 yards and three scores in eight games since the Dolphins acquired him from the San Francisco 49ers. Now, Miami might rely on him in case Mostert does not play. Tyreek Hills has been amazing this season for the Fins, with 119 catches for 1,710 yards and seven touchdowns. Likewise, Jaylen Waddle has 75 catches for 1,356 yards and eight scores.
Melvin Ingram has led the defense with six sacks. Also, Jerome Baker had 66 solo tackles and four sacks. The defense may have to play the best game of their lives to stop Allen.
The Dolphins could cover the spread if they start the game fast and build a significant lead. Additionally, they must design schemes to stop a high-powered Bills offense.
Why The Bills Could Cover The Spread
Allen is already having an amazing career. Now, he looks to take that next step. Allen had a 63.3 percent completion rate with a 96.6 quarterback rating. Also, he passed for 4,283 yards, 35 touchdowns, and 14 interceptions while rushing 124 times for 762 yards and seven scores. Devin Singletary rushed 177 times for 819 yards and five touchdowns while catching 38 passes for 280 yards and a score. Meanwhile, James Cook rushed 89 times for 507 yards and two touchdowns.
Allen's weapons include Stefon Diggs, Gabe Davis, and Dawson Knox. Moreover, Diggs had another amazing season with 108 catches, 1,429 yards, and 11 touchdowns. Davis had a four-touchdown game last season in the AFC Divisional Round match against the Kansas City Chiefs. Therefore, he looks to build on that and keep showcasing his talent.
Matt Milano, Taron Johnson, and Tremaine Edmunds are the defensive stars of the unit. Now, they look to create pressure and disrupt the Miami game plan.
The Bills could cover the spread if Allen finds all his weapons and they run away with it. Also, they must prevent Hill and Waddle from running all over the field.
Final Dolphins-Bills Prediction & Pick
It will not be a tough Dolphins-Bills prediction. Therefore, expect the Bills to take advantage of the home field and the injuries and run away with this one.
Final Dolphins-Bills Prediction & Pick: Buffalo Bills: -13.5 (-112)
