Ranked fourth overall in the nation, Tommy Lloyd’s Arizona Wildcats will take on Nate Oats’ Alabama Crimson Tide. Below we will continue our college basketball odds series with an Alabama-Arizona prediction and pick.

This contest takes place at the Footprint Center in Phoenix, Arizona, home of the Phoenix Suns. Tucson falls just under two hours away from the Footprint Center — technically classified as a ‘semi-home’ game for Arizona. While Tide fans are known to travel well in during the Oats era, I predict a heavy Wildcat contingent at this one. 

Unsurprisingly, Tommy Lloyd has continued his early success in the transfer portal. Caleb Love (North Carolina) and Keshad ‘Showtime’ Johnson (San Diego St) have taken this squad to new heights. Freshman standout 7-2 Motiejus Krivas spelling senior 7-0 Oumar Ballo is eerily similar to UConn’s Donovan Clingan/Adama Sanogo rotation last year. Coming off their only loss of the  season to Purdue, the Wildcats are back in the Grand Canyon state looking to bounce back.

After earning the #1 overall seed in March Madness, Nate Oats and the Crimson Tide have not experienced that same early season success. A major factor being the loss of rim protector Charles Bediako. Newcomers 6-11 Grant Nelson (North Dakota St) and 6-3 Aaron Estrada (Hofstra) have joined 6-1 senior Mark Sears to provide an offensive boost that, well, has this offense tops in the country.

Both teams are attempting to bounce back from a loss against an elite team, who wants it more?

Here are the college basketball odds, courtesy of FanDuel. 

College Basketball Odds: Alabama-Arizona Odds

Alabama: +7.5 (-110)

Arizona: -7.5 (-110)

Over: 175.5 (-110)

Under: 175.5 (-110)

How to Watch Alabama vs. Arizona

Time: 11:00 pm ET/ 8:00 pm PT

TV: ESPN

Stream: fuboTV (Click for free trial)

Why Alabama Will Cover The Spread

Let us start by recognizing that Alabama will have a chance to cover in every game solely from their offensive firepower. Through ten games, the Tide’s largest deficit was 15 points against Ohio State five weeks ago. Over their past five games, including Clemson, Purdue, and Creighton, Alabama has never trailed by more than ten points. In summary, Alabama’s offense is so incredibly efficient that it is nearly impossible to pull away from them. 

Secondly, when you look at the schedule and see three straight games against top-ten opponents it is intimidating. I have heard whispers of “how much does Alabama have left in the tank?” and ideas of that sort. Do not fall into that trap. Alabama has only played two games in the past two weeks and has never been more desperate for a win than right now. If anything, I think they will be even more fired up. This is Alabama’s last chance to pick up a top 25 win until January 20th when they travel to Tennessee.  

Matchup-wise, Arizona’s defense ranks 3rd nationally in defensive efficiency. The Wildcats are the best defensive rebounding team around and they defend without fouling. Where they dominate the interior, Arizona has weaknesses outside along the perimeter. Arizona ranks 237th in team 3-point percentage defense (allowing 34.3%) and they surrender the 40th most percentage of points from 3 (35.8%). Contrarily, Alabama boasts the 20th-best team 3-point shooting percentage (39.1%) and they shoot them often (43rd most attempts per game). To dumb that down, Arizona has a weak perimeter defense and that falls right into Alabama’s offensive strengths. 

One last note I would like to include in the handicap is that there is a general consensus that Arizona has a massive size advantage. We can agree that Oumar Ballo, Keshad Johnson and Motiejus Krivas are more physically imposing than the Alabama bigs. But, I will have you know that Alabama actually has a taller team average height. The length from Mohamed Wague, Nick Pringle, Grant Nelson, Jarin Stevenson and Sam Walters could be a factor that some are completely ignoring. Most importantly, Wague and if he can defend without fouling. Over the past four weeks, Wague has the 3rd best +/- in the SEC (+10.6). 

Why Arizona Will Cover The Spread

Initially, I would like to mention Alabama’s woes on away from home. Through ten games, the Tide boast an overall record of 6-4. At home in the comfort of the Coleman Coliseum, Alabama is 5-1. Away from home, they are 1-3 with the only victory being over an Oregon team without two starters, 7-0 Nate Bittle and 6-11 N’Faly Dante. Also, Alabama’s victory over Indiana St was when the Sycamores were without star big man, 6-10 Robbie Avila. You can argue that the Tide do not have a win this year against a good frontcourt. 

Secondly, Alabama has benefitted the past two games against Purdue and Creighton from their fast tempo. Thankfully, Arizona has a nearly identical offensive tempo as Alabama. Where the Tide could get out and run to speed up Purdue and Creighton, Arizona will gladly accept that challenge and play fast. 

Alabama’s interior defense has been incredibly weak compared to last season and that plays right into Arizona’s offense. The Tide rank 231st in 2-point percentage defense (allowing 51.8%) and even worse, rank 283rd in defensive foul rate. In summary, Alabama struggles to protect the paint and even when they do, they usually foul. Arizona should feast all night long in the paint. 

Lastly, this is the first buy-low opportunity on the Wildcats all season. Coming off a loss to the best team in the nation is not necessarily viewed as a negative in my eyes. Arizona has been one of the most dominate teams through ten games. Kylan Boswell had his worst shooting game of the season (6pts, 0-4 from 3pt) and they still almost won. Per KenPom, Arizona is projected to win every game for the rest of the year. While that probably will not happen, this might be the lowest the public is on Arizona for some time. 

Final Alabama-Arizona Prediction & Pick

Initially, an Alabama/Arizona pick was not going to be clear cut but after the research I have a side I like. Both teams have their path to efficient offense. I predict Arizona will feast inside while Alabama has their usual barrage behind the arc. I also predict Wague will not foul out in seven minutes like he did against Creighton, but also Kylan Boswell will shoot better than 0-4 from three. The difference in this game for me is motivation. 

Yes, Arizona is going to want to bounce back after the Purdue loss like any team would. More significantly, Alabama needs this win for multiple reasons. This is Alabama’s last chance to right the ship before conference play starts, whereas Arizona plays ranked FAU next game. This would be Alabama’s first top 25 win of the year, while Arizona already has three. After not trailing by more than ten against Purdue and Creighton, the Tide will be fearless against a normally intimidating Arizona squad. Throw the numbers out on this one. Both teams with get theirs on offense, the Tide need this one a bit more. For my Alabama/Arizona pick give me the best offense in the nation on a semi-neutral floor in a must win situation to cover a multiple possession spread.

Final Alabama-Arizona Prediction & Pick: Alabama +7.5