Ranked 16th nationally, Nate Oats and the Alabama Crimson Tide travel to Auburn to take on Bruce Pearl’s 12th-ranked Auburn Tigers in this massive SEC matchup. Below we will continue our college basketball odds series with an Alabama-Auburn prediction and pick.
Sitting atop the SEC at 8-1, Nate Oats and the Tide are one of the hottest teams in America. Alabama has been led by All-American candidate, Mark Sears, who has scored 21 or more points in eight of nine SEC games. With a recent uptick in production from front-court newcomers Grant Nelson and Mo Dioubate, Alabama has found the physicality to match the flash.
Bruce Pearl and Auburn responded well this past week after the back-to-back road losses two weeks ago. On Saturday the Tigers became the first team to win in Oxford this year and did so by double digits, 91-77. Johni Broome was just awarded SEC Player of the Week for the first time–Auburn will go as far as Broome takes them.
A rematch of KenPom top-tens in what could be the SEC title decider, as big-time as it gets folks.
Here are the college basketball odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
College Basketball Odds: Alabama-Auburn Odds
Alabama: +4.5 (-102)
Moneyline: +172
Auburn: -4.5 (-120)
Moneyline: -210
Over: 163.5 (-110)
Under: 163.5 (-110)
How to Watch Alabama vs. Auburn
Time: 7:00 pm ET/4:00 pm PT
TV: ESPN2
Stream: fuboTV (Click for free trial)
Why Alabama Will Cover The Spread/Win
Initially, the ability for Alabama to explode offensively will give them a good chance to cover in almost every game. After trailing Georgia by 16, the Tide scored 58 second-half points to not only win but cover. The insertion of Latrell Wrightsell into the starting lineup after the loss at Tennessee has paid off for Nate Oats. In Wrightsell’s four starts the Tide are averaging 93 points per game.
Additionally, Alabama's frontcourt is playing the best they have all year. Jarin Stevenson is coming off his best game offensively and Mo Dioubate racks up blue-collar points like it's nobody's business. Grant Nelson has found his confidence and seems far more comfortable and understanding of his role than he did a month ago. Also, Nate Oats announced today that they are expecting Nick Pringle to be available.
Lastly, Alabama’s defense has quietly been one of the better defenses in the SEC (4th). The increased minutes from Mo Dioubate and the ability to put Rylan Griffen on the opponent's best perimeter scorer have Alabama playing some of their best defense of the season. Despite having good offensive numbers, Auburn ranks bottom half of the SEC in three-point shooting. Alabama held Auburn to 5-25 (20%) from three in their first game. If they can replicate that perimeter performance they’ll be in a good position for a cover.
Why Auburn Will Cover The Spread/Win
First, let’s talk about the power of Neville Arena. Since the start of the 2021-2022 season, Auburn is 41-2 (95.3%) at home. One of those two losses came by way of the Tide last year. The atmosphere and intensity that Neville Arena will create may very well be one of the best of the year. As Johni Broome said this week, “It’s personal.”
Additionally, Alabama has also struggled on the road more than it looks on paper. The Tide won at Vanderbilt by three, were tied at Mississippi State with two minutes left, got blown out by 20 at Tennessee, then came back from down 16 to win at Georgia. For a team that looks near unstoppable on paper, the in-conference road performances have been as shaky as it gets.
Also, as dominant as the Alabama offense is, they have a weakness. They already struggled with it in the non-conference, but now in SEC play, the turnovers have gotten even worse.
The Tide rank bottom of the SEC in both offensive turnover percentage (19.1%) and steal rate (12.3%) which plays right into the strength of Auburn’s defense. The Tigers rank first in the SEC in forced turnover rate (19.8%) and third in steal rate (11.4%). Alabama averages 15 turnovers per game in their four SEC road games. Auburn was able to force 14 turnovers in the first matchup, if they reach that or exceed they will be in a great spot to cover.
Final Alabama-Auburn Prediction & Pick
There is a very good possibility this is and will be Alabama’s hardest true road game all year. The only true road games Alabama won this year are at Vanderbilt (186nd), Mississippi State (42nd), and Georgia (75th). Alabama does not have a top-40 win on the road this year. Auburn fans started lining up over 30 hours before game time, trust me when I say this place is going to have an unbelievable atmosphere.
In their previous matchup at Coleman Coliseum, Auburn shot 5-25 (20%) from three and lost the rebounding battle 41-46 yet still had opportunities to win down the stretch. Give me the Tigers to get their revenge and protect home court.
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Final Alabama-Auburn Prediction & Pick: Auburn -4.5 (-110)
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