After finishing up the 162-game slate of 2023 with a respectable 84-78 record that was good enough to sneak into the playoffs, very few baseball fans could have predicted what would happen next. With Vegas currently setting the D-Backs at 83.5 wins, can Arizona continue their magical ways? It's time to continue our MLB odds series with a Diamondbacks over/under win total prediction.
Before anyone could blink, the Arizona Diamondbacks took the league by storm and danced their way to a World Series appearance in true Cinderella fashion. At many times throughout the 2023 season, there were moments when it seemed that Arizona wouldn't even come close to sniffing the postseason. However, Arizona defied the odds and even took down the mighty NL West champion LA Dodgers en route to their first NL pennant since 2001. With plenty of young talent to build their franchise upon, will the D-Backs have what it takes to prove that last season was anything but a fluke?
Here are the Win Total MLB Odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
MLB Odds: Diamondbacks 2024 Win Total Odds
Over 83.5 Wins: -115
Under 83.5 Wins: -105
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Why Diamondbacks Will Win 83.5 Games
To begin, Arizona's chances to pick up right where they left off might be dictated by how well the team gets started right out the gate. At first glance, the Diamondbacks will be squaring off with eight different teams. Among those eight clubs, Arizona will only clash with two squads that managed to reach the postseason a year ago. Without a doubt, this stretch will be vital for the Snakes, as they are certainly more than capable of landing a deadly strike on their foes. On the other side of things, if Arizona digs themselves in too deep of a hole, then they could be in trouble.
When looking at the bigger picture of things, Arizona has a pair of dynamic aces and a cornerstone piece that they can build upon for years to come. Despite the NL West being an increasingly competitive division, the one-two punch of Zac Gallen and Merrill Kelley will immediately give this club a jump on the competition. After starting in last year's MLB All-Star Game, Gallen has certainly made a name for himself while Kelly struck out 187 batters during last year's regular season.
Furthermore, the remarkable play from OF Corbin Carroll a season ago was another example of what makes baseball so great. The reigning NL Rookie of the Year was a speed demon on the base paths and also provided stellar pop in the heart of Arizona's lineup. Correctly enough, the D-Backs have recognized that their contending window is open, and their upper management is proving that they care about fielding a winner. As long as the Diamondbacks receive a clean bill of health in 2024, the sky is truly the limit.
Why Diamondbacks Won't Win 83.5 Games
While things are looking as bright as ever down in The Valley for this franchise, there is always a chance that the expectations from the previous season are not met. Clearly, the D-Backs would rather spend no time discussing what an underperforming season would look like, but listen below are a few reasons why Arizona will fail to reach the 83.5 win threshold.
For starters, solidifying the starting pitching staff as a whole will be a main priority for the Diamondbacks to be taken seriously as contenders. As previously mentioned, the top two pitchers in Gallen and Kelly are no slouches, but the rest of the rotation has some question marks. Yes, Brandon Pfaadt pitched like a man possessed during the postseason with a 3.27 ERA but posted a lofty 5.27 ERA in regular season play. In addition, arms like Ryne Nelson and top prospect Slade Cecconi need more seasoning at the big-league level before they are taken seriously.
All in all, outside of the fact that the pitching rotation and even the bullpen may dictate just how far the Diamondbacks go this season, the National League and more specifically the NL West is absolutely stacked. Undoubtedly, the D-Backs are far from being the odds-on favorites to win the pennant in back-to-back seasons, and Arizona will need to navigate a reloaded Dodgers squad to see their season-long aspirations come true. Not to mention, but rock-solid Atlanta Braves and Philadelphia Phillies teams won't bode well for Arizona's chances to hit the over on wins.
Final Diamondbacks Over/Under Win Total Prediction
How can one not be excited about the future of this organization? It appears that the Diamondbacks are making all of the right moves in the front office and have just the right amount of youth and playoff experience to be taken seriously among their NL peers. After winning 84 wins last season, it should be expected that Arizona crushes that mark one year later in an effort to defend their National League Pennant crown.
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Final Diamondbacks Over/Under Win Total Prediction: Over 83.5 Wins (-115)
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