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Aryna Sabalenka plays Paula Badosa in the quarterfinals of the 2025 Australian Open. Our Australian Open odds series has our Sabalenka-Badosa prediction, odds and pick. Find out how to watch Sabalenka-Badosa.
The semifinals are here at the 2025 Australian Open. We did not get a rematch of last year's women's semifinal between Coco Gauff and Aryna Sabalenka in Melbourne. Paula Badosa defeated Gauff in the quarterfinals and reminded everyone that while Coco Gauff is an elite competitor, her forehand is still vulnerable enough that a good player — Badosa is the No. 11 seed at this tournament — can expose it and pick it apart. Badosa has finally reached a first major semifinal. If you follow women's tennis closely, at least at the majors, you know that the WTA has produced a lot of first-time major semifinalists over the years. There are usually a few each calendar year, and Badosa has become that player at the 2025 Australian Open. Stay tuned for the French Open to see if another new semifinalist enters the picture in women's tennis.
Badosa and Aryna Sabalenka are good friends on tour. This is not a secret but is well known. A lot of tennis journalists and commentators look for animosity and try to manufacture a sense of bad blood between tennis players. This is the exact opposite. It will be fascinating to see if this helps Badosa relax and play freely. Obviously, the occasion of a first major semifinal is extremely weighty and can become oppressive. Athletes can overthink and can dwell too much on the stakes and significance of the match, which hinders their play and hijacks the fluidity of their thinking and movement on the court in real time. Maybe the friendship with Sabalenka will allow Paula Badosa to play the way she can, and she has certainly been magnificent at this tournament Down Under.
Sabalenka is gunning for a third straight Australian Open championship and a second straight hardcourt major title, having won the 2024 U.S. Open last September. Sabalenka has not been overwhelmingly great at this tournament — she lost a set in the quarterfinals agaisnt Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova — but she has responded well whenever she has been tested. Let's see how much of a test her friend from Spain, Badosa, can give her.
Here are the Sabalenka-Badosa Australian Open odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
Australian Open Odds: Sabalenka-Badosa Odds
Game Spread:
Sabalenka -4.5 (-112)
Badosa +4.5 (-118)
Moneyline:
Sabalenka -360
Badosa +280
To Win First Set:
Sabalenka -280
Badosa +220
Total Games In Match:
Over 20.5 (-122)
Under 20.5 (-110)
Total Games Won:
Sabalenka over 12.5 (-108)
Sabalenka under 12.5 (-124)
Badosa over 9.5 (-110)
Badosa under 9.5 (-120)
How to Watch Australian Open
Time: 3 a.m. ET/12 a.m. PT
TV: ESPN2, ESPN Plus
*Watch sports LIVE with fuboTV (Get Access | Save $30)*
Why Aryna Sabalenka Will Win
Aryna Sabalenka is the best female hardcourt tennis player on the planet. No one can question that statement. Iga Swiatek is No. 1 on clay. Wimbledon grass is its own separate reality. On concrete, however, Sabalenka is the gold standard, having won both hardcourt major tournaments last year and having reached each of the last four hardcourt major finals. There's a pattern here. No need to bet against it.
Why Paula Badosa Will Win
Her friendship with Aryna Sabalenka doesn't guarantee that Paula Badosa will play well, but it certainly offers her a chance to ignore the pressure of the occasion and simply enjoy playing tennis. If Badosa can slip into that mental space, she could play an excellent match and win. Sabalenka lost a set in the quarterfinals and its not playing her absolute best tennis. If she is slightly less than her best, Badosa can beat her.
Final Sabalenka-Badosa Prediction & Pick
Our lean is to Badosa with the spread and to over-games-won props, since this match will probably produce at least one set which goes 12 games (one player needing seven games to win the set) and might easily go three sets.
Final Sabalenka-Badosa Prediction & Pick: Badosa +4.5
