Ranked 12th nationally, Bruce Pearl and the Auburn Tigers travel to Gainesville to take on Todd Golden’s Florida Gators in this huge SEC matchup. Below we will continue our college basketball odds series with an Auburn-Florida prediction and pick.

Coming off their biggest win of the season, Bruce Pearl and his Tigers find themselves tied in first atop the SEC. Entering this matchup ranked 4th per KenPom, Auburn has solidified itself as one of the best teams in the country. Led by national player of the year candidate, Johni Broome, the Tigers are a dangerous bunch with more depth than you could imagine.

Florida’s four-game winning streak was snapped heartbreakingly last Saturday as the Gators are finding their footing. Led by paint beast Tyrese Samuel, the Gators are one of the best rebounding teams in the nation. Riverside transfer, 6-4 Zyon Pullin, and Iona transfer, 6-3 Walter Clayton have sparked the offensive efficiency into the top 20 nationally. The Gators may be 5-4 in SEC play, but they are a hot pick to make a February push.

Here are the college basketball odds, courtesy of FanDuel. 

College Basketball Odds: Auburn-Florida Odds

Auburn:

Moneyline:

Florida:

Moneyline:

Over:

Under:

How to Watch Auburn vs. Florida  

Time: 3:30 pm ET/12:30 pm PT

TV: SECN

Stream: fuboTV (Click for free trial)

Why Auburn Will Cover The Spread/Win

First, the Auburn defense deserves far more credit than they are receiving. In the SEC, the Tigers rank 1st in overall defensive efficiency, turnover and block rate, and both three-point and two-point defense. This is a Florida offense that can offensive rebound but they also have their flaws. The Gators rank bottom half of the SEC in every offensive category except for rebounding. 

Contrarily, the Florida defense is dead last in the SEC in turnover rate. With Tre Donaldson playing more and more of the point guard minutes, Auburn should be able to protect the ball on the road here. Auburn should be in a position to rack up blocks and steals and comfortably win the turnover battle. Florida is already shaky defensively, if Auburn can get out in transition that could be the difference. 

In terms of point distribution, the Florida defense allows exactly what the Auburn offense likes to do. Florida allows by far the most points from two-point range but also the least amount from three. Bruce Pearl has said numerous times this season how he thinks his team keeps shooting too many threes. Bruce wants the ball pounded inside to the strength of this team, Johni Broome and Jaylin Williams. We just saw Broome and Williams combine for 13-22 (59%) from two against Alabama. With the way Florida has been defending the paint, Broome and Williams could see similar efficiency in this game. 

Why Florida Will Cover The Spread/Win

First, the spot Auburn is in might be more important than anything. Auburn is coming off a Saturday come-from-behind win at Ole Miss which was a big break through finally winning a big road game. Then, Auburn hosts the Iron Bowl of Basketball rematch at home and crushes Alabama for revenge. One can argue those were Auburn’s two most emotional wins of the season back-to-back. After the hysteria that was Wednesday night, Auburn has to make a quick trip to Gainesville to take on a hungry Florida team. This might be the biggest let-down spot of the entire season.

Next, the Gators are a rare team that can deal, and potentially overwhelm, Auburn size and depth. Led by 6-10 240lb Tyrese Samuel, 7-1 235lb Micah Handlogten, and 6-11 230lb Alex Condon, Florida ranks 2nd nationally with an offensive rebounding percentage of 40%. Another notably big and physical team is Chris Jans’ Mississippi State Bulldogs. To put into perspective how imposing Florida’s bigs are, Chris Jans played his two centers, Tolu Smith and Jimmy Bell, together for the first and only time all season against Florida. If there is any front court that can physically match Johni Broome, Dylan Cardwell, and Jaylin Williams, it’s Florida’s. 

Additionally, Florida has been rock solid at home this year. The Gators are 9-1 at home with the only loss being an 85-87 game to Kentucky when they had Wagner and Mitchell healthy–not too bad at all. Now they are returning home after a week off from the Texas A&M loss. They just got to watch that entire Auburn vs Alabama game on Wednesday–this will be Florida’s Super Bowl. 

Final Auburn-Florida Prediction & Pick

The main concern with Florida during the Todd Golden era has been their inability to win big games. It seems as if late January wins over Mississippi State and Kentucky have broken that glass ceiling for the Gators. There is no question when looking at the numbers about who the better team is. Clear as day, Auburn is the more efficient team. However, college basketball is all about matchups and spots.

We are catching a Florida team fully rested with a week off after a heartbreaking road loss. We are also catching an Auburn team on the road after their two most emotional wins of the season. A perfect storm is forming in Gainesville, give me the Gators. Also just a fun fact, Auburn has not won at Florida since 1996. 

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Final Auburn-Florida Prediction & Pick: Florida ML -105