With a Baltimore Orioles Wild Card series scheduled against the Kansas City Royals, both fanbases' blood pressures will rise as each team fights for playoff survival. Ahead of the Orioles-Royals game, we'll be making our Orioles Wild Card predictions.
The Orioles are a baseball purist's dream, as most of their core players are homegrown. Baltimore has the league's third-best farm system as of August 15th, via MLB.com. It shows on the field, as the club finished third in the AL led by stars like Gunnar Henderson, Adley Rutschman, and Anthony Santander, all of whom were drafted by the organization. Most of the team's position players are career-long Orioles, with supporting pieces like Ryan Mountcastle, Jordan Westburg, and Colton Cowser rounding out the squad. Of course, that's not to mention MLB top prospect Jackson Holliday getting his first taste of playoff action.
While the Royals aren't quite as deep, they're also led by homegrown talent. Third-year shortstop Bobby Witt Jr. sits at the top of the food chain after a breakout season after winning the 2024 AL batting title with a .332 average. The 24-year-old also led the team with 32 homers, 109 RBI, 57 walks, a .977 OPS, and a 9.4 WAR. Only New York Yankees superstar Aaron Judge bested Witt with a 10.8 WAR.
Salvador Perez, Maikel Garcia, and Vinnie Pasquantino are all dangerous as well. Perez mashed 27 homers and 104 RBI, while Garcia led the squad with 37 stolen bases.
Tuesday's Game 1 also features a battle of aces on the mound, with southpaw Cole Ragans toeing the slab for the Royals against right-hander Corbin Burnes for the Orioles. Ragans ranked fifth in the MLB with 223 strikeouts and 12th with a 3.14 ERA in 32 appearances this season. Meanwhile, Burnes ranked seventh with a 2.92 ERA and tied for the third-most wins with 15, also in 32 outings.
If Kansas City can upset Baltimore on the road to start the best-of-three series, it'll be halfway to its first ALDS appearance since 2015. With that being said, let's move on to our Orioles Wild Card predictions.
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Corbin Burnes will hold the Royals to two runs or less
Corbin is hot at the right time, as he hasn't allowed more than two earned runs in a game over his last six starts. The 29-year-old also notched two consecutive seven-inning outings against the Detroit Tigers before holding the Yankees to one run over five innings in the Bronx to end his regular season. While the postseason is a different animal, Corbin's been good in October as well, posting a 1-1 record with a 2.84 ERA and 0.89 WHIP in eight outings for the Milwaukee Brewers across 2018, '21, and '23.
Vinnie Pasquantino will struggle against the Orioles
Pasquantino returns to Kansas City's lineup on Tuesday for the first time since breaking his right thumb on August 29. However, the first baseman is relegated to the designated hitter role, as manager Matt Quatraro said that he's not yet ready to play the field, via ESPN.
Pasquantino enjoyed a productive season before going down, slashing .262/.315/.446 with 19 homers and 97 RBI in 131 games. However, the 26-year-old has no playoff experience, and it's difficult for anybody to perform well in that setting when recovering from an injury, let alone someone who's never been there before.
If Pasquantino struggles at the plate early on, expect Quatraro to sub him out for a pinch-hitter.
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