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The Kansas City Chiefs and San Francisco 49ers will meet in Las Vegas for Super Bowl 58. This is the game that fans all around the world have been waiting for since September, and bettors will have plenty of options for prop bets for the big game. Let’s take a look at the best Super Bowl 58 props for bettors to make money on during Super Bowl Weekend.
All Super Bowl 58 NFL odds courtesy of FanDuel.
Patrick Mahomes: Over 262.5 Passing Yards (-110) & Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (-150)
Patrick Mahomes is the best quarterback in the world, and he shines when the lights are the brightest. This is the Super Bowl, where the stars must show up and show out. Both teams will be relying on their star players, and Mahomes is going to get plenty of opportunities to gash San Francisco’s defense down the field.
Kansas City's strong run game might be the biggest impediment to Mahomes reaching this total, as it is likely that the Chiefs will try and establish the run game early. However, even if they do that, if they succeed it could pay dividends for Mahomes in the second half. Establishing the run game will bring defenders closer to the line of scrimmage and get them playing downhill. This will open up the play-action game and allow Mahomes to take one-on-one shots to his playmakers down the field. This makes it relatively easy for the Chiefs to pick up chunk yardage, which could help Mahomes reach this number.
Bettors can be confident that Mahomes will be given every opportunity to throw the ball down the field, racking up yards and finding the end zone.
Don’t be surprised if he throws for 300+ yards and three or more touchdowns. Even a 400-yard passing game with four touchdowns wouldn't shock me.
Rashee Rice: Over 6.5 Total Receptions (-105)
Rashee Rice has done an incredible job of cementing himself as one of Mahomes’ top targets as a rookie. Rice has a preternatural feel for the game and he just simply knows how to get open. He knows how to find the gaps in a defense and he knows where Mahomes is expecting him to be. He has a great feel for getting to his spots and looking back to his quarterback for the ball.
Because Kansas City has so many weapons and different ways of attacking a defense, bettors should have some healthy skepticism around betting on Rice's receiving yards total or touchdown prop. That being said, Rice's total reception prop is a great bet. Because he has proven his understanding of the game, Rice will often be targeted on hot routes when the defense brings pressure. Defenses also have a tendency to prefer playing zone defenses against Mahomes, as Kansas City is adept at exploiting one-on-one matchups.
Rice should have several easy receptions when he finds gaps in the defense. With a couple of check-downs against blitzes and a few shots down the field, it is easy to see Rice being targeted at least a dozen times and potentially coming away with double-digit receptions in this game.
Travis Kelce: Anytime Touchdown Scorer (-105)
Travis Kelce is Mahomes’ go-to target in the passing game, and bettors can expect him to be targeted heavily in the Super Bowl. Kelce has been on fire throughout this year's postseason run, and there is no reason to expect his performance to taper off in the biggest game of the year.
Kelce is too fast for most linebackers to cover him, and he is too strong and physical for most defensive backs to cover him. The 49ers have arguably the best linebacker corps in football, and that may be part of the reason why the odds are where they are instead of closer to -130.
However, San Francisco's linebackers play a crucial role in their run defense and the Chiefs will look to put them in a difficult spot by running the ball early. If Kansas City can establish the run, this will open up the play-action pass game where Mahomes and Kelce are a lethal combination.
Even if Kansas City is unable to establish the run, if they end up relying on the passing game I expect Kelce to be targeted heavily. If this is the case, Kelce should be able to beat his defender at least once in the red zone and cash it in for a touchdown.
Isaiah Pacheco: Over 67.5 Rushing Yards (-110)
A big part of the Chiefs' game plan for the Super Bowl will be to get San Francisco's defense off balance. The whole world is likely expecting Mahomes to come out and air the ball out from the first snap. He is the best quarterback in the world, and you want to rely on your best players in the biggest moments.
There is truth to that statement, but the Chiefs may opt to take a different route. What they could do instead is attempt to establish the running game early, which would open up the play-action pass while stretching the 49ers' defense beyond their breaking point.
If the Chiefs are able to establish the run game early, Pacheco might even be close to this total by halftime. Once the fourth quarter rolls around and the 49ers defense is gassed and strained by having to cover the whole field, Pacheco should be able to break off a couple of big runs that will comfortably put him over this total.
Christian McCaffrey: Anytime Touchdown Scorer (-230)
Christian McCaffrey's touchdown prop is priced expensively, and while this may be justified the price is a little high for my taste. McCaffrey will likely score a touchdown in this game, but bettors should wait for a cheaper price, and pass on this wager if the odds stay where they currently are.
McCaffrey is averaging a touchdown per game this season, and there is no reason for the 49ers to go away from what has gotten them to where they are in the biggest game of the season.
I would consider backing McCaffrey to score if the line gets to -200, and if it reaches -180 or better I would absolutely take that bet in a heartbeat.
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